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Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: hcirteg who wrote (6644)	1/3/1999 10:26:00 AM
From: rory sohn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 27311

$100, why not!

To: hcirteg who wrote (6644)	1/3/1999 4:38:00 PM
From: Bill 49M	Respond to of 27311

My guesses: High 24 Close 17 Bill

To: hcirteg who wrote (6644)	1/3/1999 8:25:00 PM
From: HQ	Respond to of 27311

High of 74 this year, closing at 38. (Tripling from there a year later.) Okay, so it's a wild guess. With the speculative trading in this market, share price could go anywhere this year, even if real earnings are only hitting a couple of bucks per share per year, at the end of '99.

To: hcirteg who wrote (6644)	1/3/1999 9:40:00 PM
From: Jibacoa	Respond to of 27311

Put me down for 28 this Summer after orders announcements Years high 56

To: hcirteg who wrote (6644)	1/3/1999 9:47:00 PM
From: jean1057	Respond to of 27311

12/31/99,,,Prediction $ 75.- eom..

To: hcirteg who wrote (6644)	1/3/1999 9:52:00 PM
From: FMK	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 27311

End of '99 estimate $96 Assumptions 1-Additional financing will occur with dilution to about 35 million shares. 2-The financing is for the purposes of rapid expansion. 3-They have it right now and it's time to increase the scale of operations. 4-There will be larger contracts, $100 million or higher. 5-There will be multi shift production on a minimum of 5 production lines in NI by late '99. 6-Valence's role in supplying batteries for the Army's OICW will be officially announced. 7-Valence's role in supplying batteries for other government applications will be announced. 50% profits on 1mln cellphone batteries/mo from Hanil JV ---$20mln/35mln sh = ----------------------------$0.57/sh 100% profits on 1mln cellphone batt/mo by Valence on identical Arcotronics line-----$40mln/35mln sh----------$1.14/sh 50% profits of additional production line from Hanil JV -----------------------------------------------------$0.22/sh 90% profits on the army's $15,000 OICW (objective individual combat weapon) that an Alliant Tech spokesman stated that Valence will build batteries for, to replace the now-standard M16 rifle. No telling when govt will announce. Est 300,000 rifles x $200/batt x 33% profit = $19.8 mln/35mln -----------------------------------------------------$0.43/sh 50% of other Alliant/Valence JV profits on Seal propulsion, combat vest batteries etc. very rough estimate 50% of $30mln--------------------------------------------$0.45/sh Possible laminate sales to GM Delphi automotive and royalties for SLI (starting lights ignition) batteries replacing conventional lead-acid batteries on certain GM models-----$0.27sh Laminate sales to GM Dephi for Vehicle propulsion batteries------------------------------------------$0.30/sh 2.5 mln laptop batteries from line 1 at $75 each x 33% profit/35mln--------------------------------------$1.78/sh 10 mln unnamed application batt at $6 each x 33% profit/35mln ----------------------------------------------------$0.57/sh 25,000 unnamed application batt at $1000 each x 33% 35mln ----------------------------------------------------$0.22/sh Estimated total (max) at 35 mln sh ------$6.00/sh Since these are maximum figures, I will assume reaching 80% of this capacity by yearend. Although production has started, I will assume a straight line ramp up from zero to 80% capacity, resulting in an earnings forecast of $6 x .8 x 0.5 or $2.40 per share. Possible license agreements were not included. I have heard estimates that revenue from license agreements could exceed earnings from Valence's own production. If so, add at least another $2 per share, but we would have to wait for licensee plants to be built etc. With a fast-track growth rate I would use a PE of 40 and therefore predict a $96 share price before splits, for yearend 1999.

To: hcirteg who wrote (6644)	1/3/1999 10:02:00 PM
From: john t. brice	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 27311

HC> I'm going to say 47 by July 4 but this will require a P.O. in Q1, if not I don't see it going over ten for the year. I think the idea of a prediction pool is a good thing, maybe it will get the posts upgraded a bit. Darkside, who at times has had some worthwhile comments, is beginning to sound like a sexually frustrated ambulance chaser. Larry isn't able to decide which side of the fence he wants to be on and FMK reminds me of Charlie Brown during football season (he's just sure Lucy isn't going to pull that football at the last instant).duckster

To: hcirteg who wrote (6644)	1/3/1999 11:44:00 PM
From: kolo55	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 27311

My 1999 Year end forecast: 70 I don't think any of us can estimate the earnings stream accurately. But I think its probable that they can do somewhere around $100M in quarterly revenues by the DecQ of 1999 (this should be easy from 3-4 lines plus some JV revenues). This is a $400M annualized run rate. Taking a PSR of five times that leaves us with a $2.0B market cap, and still trade less that the average S&P stock PSR. Using 30M shares out, gives somewhere around 70 per share. Looks good but there were some risks, although significantly less than a year ago: The major risk for this stock was the ability to make the batteries. This risk is now essentially past. The next largest risk was whether the battery specs were good enough to be competitive with other commercial batteries out there. Based on the published specs, and promises of even better versions in the pipeline, this risk has decreased significantly since the beginning of 1998. The next largest risk was the market penetration rate. It took three years for Li-ion to take a 20-30% market share in the laptop arena. I expect a faster penetration for Li-poly. Given that the portable computer market is expected to grow over 25% yearly over the next five years, this translates into some big numbers down the road. I suspect much of the incremental production capacity added each year will be Li-poly. The entire portable computer battery segment will need incremental production of about 5M batteries this year, 6M batteries next year, and 8M the next. My guess is that Valence will take at least 50% of the incremental production. No shutdown of existing plants required, simply a curtailment in new Li-ion or NiMH plant construction for portable computer batteries. The fast growing market makes the penetration easier. Similar reasoning holds for the cellphone market. Again this market is growing over 25% annually. This means new capacity of somewhere around 40-50M new cellphone batteries added this year, 50-60M next, and 60-70M the following year. I guestimate that Li-poly will comprise over half of the incremental production over this period. Given all of this, my stock price targets are really pretty low. If the future works out the way I expect, I will lose this game... the stock will easily exceed my targets and someone else will win. This is a game I hope to lose. Incidentally, the balance sheet and working capital risks are quite a bit smaller than these other risks. If they can make good specification batteries and penetrate the market, raising capital or borrowing money for working capital will not be a problem; especially with the NI grants available. Paul

To: hcirteg who wrote (6644)	1/4/1999 8:16:00 AM
From: hcirteg	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 27311

*****99 PREDICTION UPDATE: FINAL!!!!! HC $43 TICKER: $38-$48 (W/ 2 SPLITS) PALLISARD: $52 DENNIS: $27 M. JOHNSON: $92.5 DSTANDISH: $50 BILL HOLTON: $82 DENNIS V. $42 STEVE HEGJI: $73 WILLIAM: $68.33 LARRY B.: $25 GREG MCD.: $70 PAUL KLEM: $70 RORY: $100 BILL M. $17 HELLQUAT: $38 JIBACOA: $56 JEAN CLAUDE: $75 DUCKSTER: $47 FMK: $96 TOTAL "ANALYSTS" PROJECTIONS: 20 LOWEST PICK: $17 HIGHEST PICK: $100 AVERAGE: $57 Thanks to all for making this what I beleive to be a meaningful survey (amongst us bulls)! If you beleive in averages, we are looking at an 8-10 bagger. Just did some TA and I must say, that looks very good now too. Money flow has turned positive and we are above some key MA's. Good luck to all. HC