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Technology Stocks : eBay - Superb Internet Business Model -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stewart Elliot who wrote (1281)	1/3/1999 9:35:00 PM
From: Timoteo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 7772

FWIW I expect EBAY and most of the other highflyers to be down this week due to "tax-gain" selling. I am unloading a number of positions this week because I think the market is close to a top. The biggest threat to EBAY's price (10 billion cap in round numbers) is not dilution which could be absorbed easily by funds, if internet mania continued, but competition. How much would it cost to duplicate EBAY's infrastructure? a million? 10 million? 100 million tops? How much in advertising and promotion would it take to outdo them? 6 months of free buying plus maybe another 100 million? Or maybe just give $5 to every user times 10 million users is $50 million. But that assumes the competitor is lesser known than EBAY, which is really not that well known. Let's say a YHOO or Netcenter or even a LYCOs or SEEK get serious about the auction business, or one of the computer retailers like CDW get into the act. EBAY could go the route of the Commodore 64, only a lot quicker. I've enjoyed the run and been grateful and astounded, but I'm getting off the EBAY and CMGI rollercoaster while its still close to the top. The only internet valued even close to what its worth IMHO is EGRP, and I'll wait for it to drop another 10 points before I buy some with my EBAY profits. Best Wishes, Timoteo

To: Stewart Elliot who wrote (1281)	1/3/1999 11:15:00 PM
From: Axxel	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 7772

It's always something that propels these stocks. I have no idean in advance what they might be, but usually I know the kind of latent power that exists in the stock. Take that 25 year dog, BID...why does that have the technical power of $60...and currently crashing from mid 30's to under $30...why will that recover and blow the lights out? What set of circumstances will come together to make that happen? I do not have the answer to that question-but I am fairly confident of the general price direction and the relative power of that stock-and the same was true with UBID $33 15/16 to $154 about two weeks ago [see rec on Bloomberg if you want], EBay and others. It's just my job-it was not learned overnight and there were PLEEEEEEENTY mistakes and judgemental errors to get me to this point. But, I don't comment on the formulation of my volume stuff, just the end result...and it's free-so you know what free stuff is worth, I guess. And if people can make a few extra bucks because of my stuff, that's OK too. And with rare exceptions, I don't invest in the stocks I discuss. AOL, AMZN & BKS are current exceptions. I do that to purposely avoid conflicts. Best regards, Axxel