Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Biotech / Medical : Ligand (LGND) Breakout! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: j g cordes who wrote (27140)	1/3/1999 5:41:00 PM
From: kha vu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 32384

hi, i am holding a long position in lgnd, avant (TCEL) and SEPR.... So far only SEPR gives me some faith in the BIOTECH..... good luck with your 99 biotech trading....

To: j g cordes who wrote (27140)	1/4/1999 6:21:00 AM
From: Cheryl Galt	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 32384

Jim, I'm glad you posted that Forbes article, cuz it got me to learn my way around the site. Also, Marc Hulbert is on my short-list of favored commentators, and I see he has a lot of articles on forbes.com. (Hulbert's newsletter evaluates the performance of well-known stock/fund pickers.) The Jan 11 issue did mention one biotech -- a plug for Warner-Lambert and Lipitor --- under "Health Care Products" in the Jan 11 Table of Contents. But (alas) the January issue definitely is not pumping biotechs. Put "ligand" in the Quick Search box, and 4 articles mentioning Ligand turn up, the most recent April 28, 1998 -- "Murphy's Law." forbes.com ------------------------- The Hulbert article you posted -- "What is High Tech" forbes.com -- may be old (May 27, 1997), but its information remains current. (You can read the date of each Forbes article in its URL.) Since we often mention Murphy and McCamant on this thread, it's useful to us that the article explains the criteria each uses to value emerging R&D tech companies. And thanks for linking to Murphy's Growth Flow Calculator. You posted everything but the last paragraph of that article --- which rings plenty true 19 months later: A word of warning: Though both Murphy and McCamant have performed well in the technology arena, their advice is not for the faint of heart. Their portfolios on average have been significantly more volatile (or risky) than the broad stock market (81% more in Murphy's case and 215% more in McCamant's case). This poses a problem only if you're a short-term trader, however, and your timing turns out to be wrong. If you're a long-term investor, short-term volatility can be safely ignored. Sure enough, the picks in this article were risky. I compared their current prices to 7/30/97 -- as far back as Dreyfus Historical Pricing goes today. tradepbs.com Only two of the 11 stocks were up (I didn't check Tcel), two were flat, and five were disasters, down 50% or more. But not to worry. It's been only 17 months, and "short-term volatility can be safely ignored." ;-) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ >> The only current Forbes on LGND is a small reference here: forbes.com:80/forbes/121696/5814392a.htm << "The Case for Small Caps" is dated 12-16-96, talks about the January Effect, and could easily pass for a brand new article: THE JANUARY EFFECT, for those few investors who haven't already heard about it, is the pronounced tendency for all stocks, but especially those of small-cap companies, to perform well during the first few weeks of the new year. January being almost upon us, it's a good time to examine its likely impact on the early 1997 stock market. We all know that small-cap stocks have lagged the big caps lately. Hulbert lists factors that reinforce the January effect, which is supposed to have happened for 50 years running, and gives some inaccurate tax info. ... The one worry about the January Effect is that too many investors know about it, and thus that it will stop working. In fact, several of the investment letters I follow suspect that the January Effect will be displaced by a December Effect, as investors jump the gun in anticipation of a strong January. ... To assist you in preparing your buy list, here are the smallest-cap stocks among those currently recommended by investment letters that are trading more than 25% below their 52-week highs: Ligand and Isis are on the December 1996 list. ------------------------------------------------------------- There's SO much deja vu in all this stuff ... No wonder you thought these articles were brand new or recent! <G> The insights from this time warp help me adjust my expectations ... Cheryl --- hoping the January effect works one more time ... --- but I simultaneously see a rolling trading range in the chart. --- Confession: I sold 2 positions into strength Dec 31st, and will re-capture them at the earliest opportunity.