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To: Venkie who wrote (87642)1/3/1999 4:57:00 PM
From: jim kelley  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 176387
 
Venkie,

I do not dislike CPQ the company. I do not like what CPQ executives and their board of directors have been doing to its shareholders by lying to them. There are 5 class action fraud lawsuits against CPQ for this reason now. The same executives that lied to the shareholders last year are in power this year.

Rudedog and the CPQ thread have not discussed the fundamentals of that company. Their thread has deteriorated into a cheerleading thread. The run up in CPQ stock has been propelled by a retail stock promotion that I have not seen since the days of BRE-X. Again many claims have been made but there is little evidence that CPQ will be able to meet its consensus earnings expectations.

In order to do this, they must reduce their costs significantly this quarter as well as get their revenues up. There has been no discussion of how this can be done and all the accountants that I have discussed this matter with are highly skeptical.

A further problem is the the new Prosignia direct product line ( which looks like a copy of the DELL Dimension). CPQ needs a new factory to produce these that is modeled after DELL. This is not discussed in either of the CPQ's most recent 10-Qs. This is a substantial cost for that capability that is unaccounted for.

CPQ may attempt to restate its financial statements to reclaim some of the 3 B in write downs that it took in June in order to meet its December estimates. However, the SEC now frowns upon that type of accounting practice and calls it a form of shareholder fraud.
Currently, the SEC is suing WR Grace company over this accounting practice.

Longer term CPQ faces the challenge of going direct. NEC attempted to do what CPQ is now experimenting with and lost big money in the retail channel for every sale they made in their direct channel. The retail channel will not go quietly to its death.

The CPQ thread and Rudedog are not discussing these matters. If anything Dog is attempting to change the subject to DELL whenever these matters are brought up. So I have to conclude that Dog is witholding key information. For CPQ. this is war and it feels justified in witholding information, promoting their stock, and spinning their accounting. Rudedog is too close to the company to discuss the real problems facing it this quarter and this year.

So while there may be some money to make by playing the " sheep stampede " ultimately the truth about CPQ has to out. Maybe Larry Flynt will give us a hand. So daytrading CPQ may produce some earnings but for long term investors there remain very serious questions about this company and its tactics and strategies.

I am hoping to make some money myself off of CPQ this quarter but it is not going to be a long term hold.

Regards,

Jim Kelley



To: Venkie who wrote (87642)1/4/1999 1:51:00 AM
From: rudedog  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 176387
 
re:sharing -
I share everything that I can about any topic I address, and I don't intentionally mislead anyone. Sometimes I can't say everything I know but I would not allow a misinterpretation of something I said to go uncorrected... I have no special information about Jim's concerns, and don't know enough accounting to really understand some of what he is getting at.

re: DELL - Every prediction I have ever made about DELL growth slowing has been wrong. At least I didn't sell any. I post the reasons for my concerns in hope of getting either confirmation or refutation. I did say on the thread earlier that there is no long term question about DELL's success. I will continue to watch with amazement.

BTW if we go back a ways you will see that my prediction for DELL at year-end was high 60's or low 70's so my armadillo bones were reading pretty well at least.