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Strategies & Market Trends : Buffettology -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James Clarke who wrote (914)	1/3/1999 4:17:00 PM
From: Shane M	Respond to of 4691

The reason this is so hard to do is that when they are temporarily in your range, the exact same people are going to be telling you their business is going down the tubes. Jim, I'm currently reading David Dreman's new book on contrarian strategies that addresses this very point. It's becoming increasingly clear to me to have a plan laid out to determine my buying behavior before a stock or the market takes a dive. If I wait and analyze things in the darkest hour I will always find reasons not to buy. Shane

To: James Clarke who wrote (914)	1/3/1999 9:16:00 PM
From: Wright Sullivan	Respond to of 4691

James- The Charlie Munger as Keith Richards bit was great. Hmmm, Keith Richards--he's the guy on the new $20 bill, right? (take a look if you haven't already). I will contact you off-thread about getting you a copy of this Munger lecture. I was mistaken about some of the details (e.g. it was not UCLA but USC). Here's the info for anyone interested: "A Lesson on Elementary, Worldly Wisdom as it Relates to Investment Management & Business", a lecture by WESCO Financial's Charles T. Munger to the students of Professor Guilford Babcock at the University of Southern California School of Business on April 14, 1994. Reprinted from Outstanding Investor Digest, Vol X Nos. 1 & 2, May 5, 1995. Sent to BRK shareholders with a cover letter by WEB on 8/15/95. It's 16 pages long, full of wisdom, and quite readable. I think one critical point you make (Shane also) is the importance of patience, regardless of what you are investing in. Look at Buffett and silver--he waited 30 years before he found it to be a no-brainer and the best alternative. This ties in with the margin of safety concept. There have indeed been opportunities to pick up even the highest-flying tech stocks (MSFT comes to mind) at reasonable P/E's. KO also, as you said. And as Shane said, it helps to have a disciplined approach and set strict buy criteria so that you aren't a sucker for the greed/fear cycle. -Wright