To: Mark[ox5] who wrote (1948 ) 1/3/1999 6:23:00 PM From: AJ Berger Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 5102
I hope we can get this cheaper too I don't think the last half hour from $17 back up to $18 were any new longs, rather new shorts like me who were afraid to stay short over the weekend and thus covered. Unless the MarketWatch IPO gets more CNBC coverage Monday morning, it will most probably move down after the first 10 minutes of trading, and continue to thrash around at that $16 price range for the balance of the day. I've got to cover, so I can go long cheaper and enjoy the ride into the 20's that the Marketwatch IPO will ultimately bring us. I don't think that IPO will add as much value to DBCC's profile to justify IPO timeframe price on DBCC past the $20's. If after the IPO of Marketwatch, that new issue continues to soar into the stratosphere, then it will have to take DBCC along with it, after dramatically burning all the new DBCC shorts who will undoubtably set up new positions as the IPO approaches. So once I'm long again, I'll probably sell half my position the day of the IPO, and let the other half ride at least until that initial short covering rally as Marketwatch continues to climb. If the IPO does not climb much beyond it's day of IPO price, then I'd sell my long, and join the other DBCC shorts. Either way, the next 2 weeks should be fun, I just hope I'm on the right side of the action this time. I'm less concerned about my little trades, and more concerned as to what to tell my Uncle with that large long position to do as the IPO approaches. If I don't time his sell right, he'll kill me! If you wonder why the $20's is all I expect from this stock, consider it's a P/E 250 publically traded company for nearly 10 years, and despite being early on the Internet, still can't manage to make much money. So if this $10 stock does double in value from it's interest in Marketwatch, that still does not take it much past the $20 price range. Keep in mind that DBCC must provide quote and news to Marketwatch for free, just as CBS is giving them Marketing time. So outside of the IPO stock appreciation, Marketwatch will be just a greater expense then it was before. So if DBCC does get into the $20's, the IPO valuation will be already realized, and the stock will then fall as interest in this who IPO gimmick dries up. Pardon my rambling, civil rebuttle is always welcome.