To: bobby is sleepless in seattle who wrote (2358 ) 1/3/1999 9:01:00 PM From: T-Lo Greens Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 122087
Bobby, I was an investor in IFLY from $5 all the way to $7 awhile back. I did alot of DD on the company and thought their brick&mortar business model was pretty good. I looked at their cashflow and analyzed their income statement. I even called up IR several times. However these expectations did not pan out, and they did not substantially increase their revenue stream as Mastrini had projected, so what I see now is an attempt to prop up the stock price by going with the website. Anyone can put up a website, in fact, PTVL has had an interactive one for quite awhile. It's not the website that will make the money, because a website in itself will never be accretive. It's the amount of eyeballs the company has that determines the success of their internet venture. Right now it's all about staking out market share. On that point, IFLY has no captive audience. It took them way too long to get their website up and running, and now that it's here, it's quite a disappointment. Yes I have looked at IRIS and it looks like something a beginning CS student did for a school project. I'm not sure how "interactive" is defined in this case, but to me it was not easily navigable. PTVL has 6 million registered users. How many does IFLY have? 5,000? 10,000? Something to that effect last time I heard. The current PE is not justifiable for either a brick&mortar business nor an Internet wannabe in this cyclical industry. Right now we are in the beginnings of a downturn for the travel industry as the economies of Asia, Brazil, and Latin America have been decimated, and the U.S. is sufferring for a trade imbalance that has never been seen before. Manufacturing is contracting, which means less travel as well, and businesses overall will report weaker earnings. IFLY will go down to the 4-5 range again IMHO. BTW, I work in the airline industry.