AOL 99: KING OR PAUPER? POLL update; 1/31/99 184; 1/1/00 328
(Note: I normally post this on the AOL thread, but Blue has encouraged me to bother you guys. Here goes.)
The leaders of the internet will widen the gap.
The I-Net kings will continue their lordship over thy second- and third-tier servants in the fiefdom of Wall Street.
AOL is in for a up and down ride in January.
If any of these sum up what you may have heard lately, you're not alone (unless you've heard the lordship thing before. I could've sworn I heard the line as I watched "Shakespeare in Love" over the weekend).
A quiet New Year's weekend is one positive sign for the markets as Monday looms ahead. No bombs. No more scandals, not in the news, anyway. Just a lot of snow up across America.
And how has that left AOL watchers feeling? Well, the bullish stance has not waned, at least not for the short term. Another 11 AOL threaders sent in their predictions for AOL (Jan. 31, 1999 and Jan. 1, 2000), and the numbers remain positive.
With an average guess of 184 by Jan. 31 and 328 for year's end, not much has changed since Friday's update.
As for Thursday, bulls were ecstatic about the S&P's inclusion of AOL and the mandatory buying that was on the horizon.
Among the most exuberant Wednesday night were Jan Garrity Allen.
Tomorrow the INDEX FUNDS MUST BUY !! WE R ON A ROCKET WITH A SPLIT IN 99 SO THE FUNDS CAN GOBBLE UP MORE SHARES!! HAPPY NEW YEAR!!
However, AOL's flat performance left the bulls flabbergasted. AOL closed the session at 144, but climbed as high as 160 in the hour after market's close.
Institutional buying? What else could it have been? And it is entirely possible that fund managers are not done buying yet. It's also possible that the 500-plus index funds did most of their buying before Thursday.
We shall see.
In the meantime, there is nothing less fundamental, perhaps, than the most basic of AOL's services. Mr. Proofsheet is among the company's believers.
I bought AOL after helping a neighbor's 11 year old daughter with
some technical issues and noticed her buddy list had 176 buddies.
I bought the next morning.
Belinda S. has a forecast of 190 for Jan. 31, but isn't closing the books just yet.
IF one buys AOL at the split last time it split, it was 79 or something, should one SELL or HOLD for long term?
Paul Van Wijk sees upside in AOL, but his concerns lie elsewhere.
Maybe we should worry about Sadam AND Y2k.
I believe there could be a connection between
Sadam & Y2k.
US-Army will be finished dealing with the Y2k-bug
in 2009.
Pentagon made Y2k-planning a national security-item
and put a blanket over it.
This mean they are not ready in 2000 (nor in 2004).
This mean the President can't fully rely on his army
after 2000.
So he will use it before 2000 to eliminate every
possible threat to US-safety.
The white stuff falling from the sky hasn't gotten Blue Snowshoe down a whole lot. He expects the i-nets to slide after Yahoo! posts earnings (see his Techride thread), but a followup to new highs will, as always, ensue.
I'm looking for AOL to take off for the first two weeks and then for all internets to get wacked good. So by months end we may not be to far from current levels. By the end of the year I think it will run to 200+ and split. ...
AOL just busted 15 million members, and there is no question in my mind they will remain on top, they are a monster. Here is something that I try to keep in mind. If you bought AOL on Aug. 31,1990, the stock has increased 32,387%.
Blue, BTW, is calling for 405 at year's end.
AOL has drawn its share of former and current Dell-heads. Among them is J.D. Main, who calls for 175 and 390 (Jan. 31 and Jan. 1, 2000).
Perhaps the most bullish of the recently polled AOL watchers is Scott Mantz, who is not only high on the new year with a 1/1/00 estimate of 520, but...
I believe we are going see AOL spending some time digesting the recent run up, but I am extremely bullish for the rest of the year as the market realizes just how fast the exponential growth of additional subscribers is for this company.
As I have stated before, AOL will have 100 million paying subscribers by Jan. 1, 2001.
With 15 million current subscribers, Scott is forecasting 3.54 million new AOLers every month until 2001.
Now that's bullish.
AOL is contributing to the trend of recent years, with big caps drawing money away from mid- and small-caps. John Carragher, posting from 10-degree Pennsylvania, was one of those who made the move.
Right on!!! I bailed out of psft after watching it go down and aol going up. Glad I made the change a few weeks ago.
Jimbo is another Dell-head is peering over the fence, as he disclosed to Gregory Mullineaux.
Gregory - I and alot of others are with you - hoping for at minimum a double in 1999. Thinking of switching some DELL over to AOL. That's how confident I am.
Watched Rukeyser Friday night. Not one of the four metnioned DELL - that was odd ! At least 2 mentioned AOL though !
Considered by some as a contrarian indicator himself, Bald Man from Mars beamed aboard the AOL Enterprise in his polite and frank way.
that is what my crystal ball told me, 5-1 split on October 10,1999
after earnings release ...
Never say never.
And the most bearish new voter was Stephen, who has a forecast of 130 for Jan. 31 and 150 for year's end.
My rationale for the first is based upon some liquidation of profits by fund managers who window dressed for year-end. My second is a belief that their may well be a year-end panic and switch out of equities because of rumours regarding a possible financial collapse caused by Y2K. In between those dates, I expect if to go higher !!
Ah, yes, the Y2K problem. But that's another thread and story, at least for now.
All new and adjusted predictions are more than welcome, so let it rip, folks. I'm waiting to hear from you.
========================
1999 2000
Jan31 Jan1
287 37 Art Stone
250 540 tang
250 500 Annette
240 400 Jan Garrity Allen *****
230 400 Dave Kosmayer
214 400 Bret
214 180 Mr. Proofsheet *****
210 450 CRICKET
204 260 David Montgomery
200 460 Phillip A. Strong
200 400 Brian Malloy
195 245 Ted Downs
192 470 Voltaire
190 475 49er Steve
190 387 Uncle Frank
190 380 Millionairess
190 345 Belinda S. *****
188 315 Andy
185 400 lebo
185 260 sam
183 264 Paul van Wijk *****
182 409 Modano
182 405 Blue Snowshoe *****
182 300 Jolie Renee
180 350 RocketMan
180 350 John Brinley
180 300 happy girl
180 300 Jon Stept
180 290 Tunica Albuginea
180 280 Jorge
180 250 James Fulop
175 390 J.D. Main *****
173 520 Scott Mantz *****
170 530 Frank Ellis Morris
170 425 Vendit
170 325 Dennis J Baltz
170 300 John Carragher *****
170 232 Jinx3d
168 260 bob
165 315 Gregory Mullineaux
165 270 Jimbo *****
162 242 james d brady
160 425 Larry
155 320 BomboochaBoy
155 155 Bald Man from Mars *****
150 250 LindyBill
145 300 sakura
145 225 David Tesorero
140 185 chalu2
137 65 The Guru 00
130 150 Stephen *****
***** denotes new entry
averages
1999 2000
Jan31 Jan1
184 328
(9180) (16416)
(50 polled)
===========================
Analysts' targets
MSN
old targets
6/99 $246
6/00 $379
new targets
6/99 $266
6/00 $409
Gerard Klauer Mattison
$175
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