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To: Stephen B. Temple who wrote (2267)1/6/1999 11:39:00 AM
From: Stephen B. Temple  Respond to of 3178
 
Clash over convergence

January 6, 1999

Network World:
Bill Homa had a crucial access-equipment
choice to make early this year when he
decided to upgrade to an all-ATM statewide
WAN.

The chief information officer of Hannaford
Brothers, a chain of grocery stores based in
Scarborough, Maine, was throwing away his
slow, outdated satellite network using very
small aperture terminals at 46 stores
statewide. He wanted to skip right over
frame relay and go directly to Bell Atlantic's
ATM service - T-1 at the stores, OC-3 to
the data center - because the chain's
inventory and decision-support systems
were chewing up bandwidth and he wanted
the capacity to do videoconferencing, too.

To help pay for the project, Homa needed to
put voice on the network, eliminating
long-distance tolls. He had to decide whose
convergence product to use.

For Homa, it was really no contest. His sites
had a mishmash of six different voice
vendors' PBXs and key systems. But they all
had the same WAN equipment: Cisco
routers.

When Cisco asked him to test its new
MC3810 multiservice access device -
basically a router with analog and digital PBX
ports and voice compression - Homa leapt
at the chance.

The only voice switch vendor he considered
was Nortel Networks, which offered a
multiservice access concentrator that would
have had to coexist with a Cisco 2500
router. "It paled in comparison with what
Cisco could do with one box," Homa says,
noting that the MC3810 has interfaces with
all major PBXs, while most voice vendors'
convergence equipment optimally works only
with their own PBXs.

Welcome to the convergence battle, where
the titans of the voice and data industries
are banging into each other but remarkably
have, so far, failed to crack each other's
markets.

When it comes to selling switches into
carrier networks, the kings of the hill are still
Nortel Networks and Lucent. Their sales of
new IP-enabled carrier-class switches and
IP trunking options for traditional central
office boxes are going gangbusters with
traditional carriers.

But when it comes to the enterprise, it's still
Cisco and the other internetworking vendors
that rule the roost, as long as any part of
the sale has to do with data applications.

Consider Lucent's aggressive foray into the
enterprise. The company has spent more
than $2.5 billion buying several companies
that make everything from Ethernet campus
and workgroup switches to ATM backbone
gear, and has signed OEM agreements for
other hot technologies, such as voice frame
relay access devices. Lucent has rebranded
much of its acquired technology under the
Cajun name originally employed by one of its
acquisitions - Gigabit Ethernet switch maker
Prominet - and has invested heavily in
marketing. It practically smothered the fall
NetWorld+Interop 98 show in Atlanta with
its banners and slogans.

Yet Lucent's most recent quarterly earnings
statement attributes its entire
enterprise-business growth to its older
technologies, continuing strong sales of its
flagship PBX - the Definity Enterprise
Communications Server - and its increasing
dominance of the call center market. It
mentions nary a word about the contribution
of its enterprise data products to revenue
growth.

And as Menachem Abraham, the Prominet
founder who now heads Lucent's Enterprise
Infrastructure Products Group, admits:
"We're still in the very early stages."

Analysts point out, and Lucent officials
freely concede, that the company's strategy
is basically a bet on the death of routing.
Lucent marketing officials like to say they're
building a portfolio that includes "everything
but a router." Some observers believe that
this kicks Lucent out of many users' bids.
But Lucent officials explain that their
company is already so large that the
slow-growth router business would hardly
contribute to revenue growth and profits
down the road. "It would be a waste of
time," says Susan Barbier, a Lucent
marketing director. That's especially become
an issue since rival Nortel's mid-year
acquisition of Bay Networks, Cisco's No. 1
competitor and Lucent's erstwhile partner in
user bids for voice and data equipment.

THE RELIABILITY QUESTION

For its part, Cisco's challenge will be to
prove that it can equal or surpass the voice
network reliability standards users and
service providers have come to expect from
"Old World" stalwarts Lucent and Nortel.
Arguably, it is this issue alone that will
determine whether users will rely on Cisco to
usher them into the New World of Internet
telephony or if they'll have to ride on the
shoulders of the Old World reliables.

Cisco is determined to venture alone into
the voice world. Company Chairman and CEO
John Chambers recently stated that Cisco
will rely on its own skills to develop, service
and support voice network products after
partnership talks with Lucent and Nortel
collapsed. Chambers also ruled out merging
with a major voice vendor and characterized
companies such as Lucent and Nortel as Old
World establishments "trying to compete in a
New World environment."

Instead, Cisco has been buying smaller niche
telephony vendors in an effort to become
more of a one-stop shop for packetized
voice. The most intriguing of these
acquisitions is Cisco's purchase of Selsius
Systems in October.

Selsius is a supplier of network PBX systems
for telephony-over-IP networks. Selsius'
technology will help users move from
conventional, proprietary circuit-switched
PBXs to multiservice LAN systems capable of
integrating data and voice, Cisco says.

"This is the first real alternative to
proprietary PBXs," says Byron Henderson,
director of marketing in Cisco's multiservice
access business unit.

The Selsius acquisition complements Cisco's
purchase earlier this year of programmable
switch maker Summa Four, Henderson says.
Cisco says Summa Four's switches will
enable it to offer telephony applications to
new and existing service providers, and
extend them to a voice-over-IP
infrastructure.

The Summa Four switches also provide
application developers with an "open
services environment" for writing software
for circuit- and packet-switched networks,
Cisco claims. But the Selsius and Summa
Four gear will have to compete,
respectively, with Lucent's Definity for the
premises and 5ESS telco switch for the
central office. And Lucent's mid-year
addition of IP telephony trunking options to
platforms was specifically designed to keep
its customers from straying to new vendors
- even those now under the spacious Cisco
umbrella - just as Cisco's multiservice boxes
are meant to hang onto data customers as
they incorporate voice.

<<Network World -- 01-04-99, p. 73>>