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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Glass House who wrote (1613)	1/4/1999 12:00:00 PM
From: BANCHEE	Respond to of 57584

Glass House Surfin the net, Saturday 2 January 1999 Many predict Y2K doom One in three say they fear effects of computer bug, poll shows Jim Bronskill The Ottawa Citizen A new poll suggests more than one-third of people expect the millennium computer bug to bite Canada hard. Thirty-seven per cent of Canadians surveyed said Jan. 1, 2000, will be an extraordinary day marked by crises. "When one in three say we're expecting a crisis, that's serious," said Michael Marzolini, chairman of Toronto-based POLLARA, which conducted the Canada Speaks survey for the Citizen. The millennium bug, also known as the Y2K problem, could make some electronic systems go haywire or shut down completely. Date-sensitive computer programs might interpret the last two zeroes in the number 2000 as the year 1900, or even 1800, making functions crash. Some believe the bug will plunge communities into chaos, leaving people without electricity and running water. Others dismiss the warnings as little more than pre-millennial hype. POLLARA conducted 1,000 telephone interviews Dec. 18-21. The survey is considered accurate to plus or minus 3.2 per cent, 19 times in 20. The poll revealed high awareness of the Y2K bug, with 67 per cent of people saying they had a good understanding of the problem. Just 27 per cent said their understanding was poor. Despite the figures, some observers doubt the average person really comprehends the millennium bug, spawning exaggerated fears based on breathless speculation about widespread disaster. "We've done quite a good job of actually making people aware of the fact that there is a problem. I think we have done a terrible job of conveying what the real problem is," said Morven Gentleman, director general of the Institute for Information Technology at the National Research Council in Ottawa. Mr. Gentleman pointed to the common misconception that the moment of fate will come and go when the clock strikes midnight next New Year's Eve. In reality, computers could experience Y2K problems well in advance -- and long after -- Jan. 1, 2000, because of the nature of some programs, he said. "They might occur any time." Still, Mr. Gentleman doesn't believe the doom and gloom predictions. The most frequent problem he foresees is bug-riddled computers making nonsensical calculations. But he acknowledges the mounting public concern. "Unfortunately, people -- especially people with only a vague understanding of the role of computers in their lives -- respond to fear and uncertainty in ways that can easily make things worse, not better." Some doomsayers plan to spend the turn of the year holed up in bunkers stocked with food, water and portable generators. Others refuse to fly in a plane next Jan. 1. Even the RCMP and the military are preparing for civil unrest. Panicky behaviour as the millennium approaches -- such as large cash withdrawals from the bank -- could cause problems that far outstrip any Y2K-related snags, said Larry Simon, who leads consulting firm Ernst & Young's millennium bug practice. "I'm much more concerned about that than I am about the actual bug itself." Mr. Simon, who has been working on the problem for three years, said the biggest headache could result this autumn when many businesses scramble to replace software that might be Y2K defective. "If you have a lot of companies that are all doing this simultaneously, you may see some funny things happening through the fall."