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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jay Scott who wrote (7785)	1/4/1999 11:56:00 PM
From: Dayuhan	Respond to of 9980

Jay, The Chinese moves in the Spratlys tend to be discussed here as a side issue to the prospect of a renewed US military presence here. There is a loud and vocal minority which thinks that the entire issue is being blown up as a major threat to promote the passage of a Visiting Forces Agreement which will bring American forces back here, at least on a transient basis. Most of these also blow the impact of the VFA totally out of proportion. Another loud and vocal minority holds that the Chinese will move on Palawan next, and that only a renewed US presence can deter them. The silent majority is busy trying to earn a living, and doesn't pay much attention. My own take on it is that it is a real threat, and that the Chinese will keep nibbling bits of territory until somebody stands up to them. They will inevitably justify the nibbling on the grounds that ancient maps show the territory in question as part of China; it would not surprise me in the least if they have a map in the cupboard which includes everything out to Hawaii. Unfortunately, the only power capable of credibly standing up to China is the US, which would have a difficult time demonstrating any kind of intervention to be in pursuit of the national interest. Probably a good case could be made for a UN-brokered settlement, but it is by no means clear how the Chinese would react, or what the UN could do if they ignored a settlement. It seems very odd to me, though, that the Chinese are pushing now, while the VFA is under discussion. I would have expected them to be very conciliatory and very well behaved, and to be lobbying against the measure. By putting the pressure on now they are making the passage of the VFA more likely, which I can't imagine they would see as a positive outcome. Strange. The US Congressman on a junket was an amusing story, though I have a hard time seeing it as anything more than grandstanding. Probably he's trying to establish himself as some sort of a presence in foreign affairs. I can imagine the reactions over in the embassy, not to mention on the upper floors of the Magsaysay Building. Not to worry. Everyone - including him - will forget about it very quickly. Steve