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To: Smart Investor who wrote (16972)1/4/1999 5:41:00 PM
From: Platter  Respond to of 27307
 
THE STOCK MARKET ADVANTAGE NEWSLETTER

January 1999

===========================
INDEXES ON 12/31/98

DJIA 9,181.43
S&P 500 1,229.39
NASDAQ 2,192.70

Editorial

The year has come to a close and it was a wild one compared to the 5 previous
years. The gains in the "Real World" portfolios both exceeded 20%. For the
fourth year in a row the aggressive portfolio gained more than 25%, which is
something I never would have forecasted. The year looks like a roller coaster
ride if you look at a chart of the major averages (S&P 500 and DJIA). An
incredible number of signals were generated between July and November (7).
Not all of the moves can be considered screaming successes. We sold Microsoft
at 105 (it's 139 now). However, we bought it at 89, so it wasn't a complete
failure. I considered purchasing Ebay when the Tactical Timing System gave a
buy signal on October 8. It was around $30 then and subsequently rose 1,000%
in the following 2 1/2 months. I'm suddenly getting a sick feeling in my
stomach. Carnival and Royal Caribbean Cruises, two of my favorites, dropped
by 50% in a couple of months and then rose by 100% in the next couple. The
experts at Merrill Lynch lowered their rating on Carnival after it had dropped
from $43 to $25 a share in late summer. Now it's at $48. That's a lot like
closing the gate after the horse has left the barn. These are the guys making
the megabucks and charging outrageous commissions on stock trades. Charles
Schwab Company recently surpassed them in market capitalization so there is
some justice in the world.

The market doesn't look very healthy to me. There is too much speculation
occurring in the Internet related sector. When this house of cards collapses,
as it surely will, investor fortitude will be severely tested. We could see
another 20% drop in the averages due to the gambling mentality infecting a
large number of individuals and institutions as they scramble to get on board
and later overboard.



To: Smart Investor who wrote (16972)1/4/1999 5:43:00 PM
From: HG  Respond to of 27307
 
Now now SI, I wasn't trying to change your convictions. Overvalued it may be in your universe....and so be it.

But predictions in this irrational market ? Thats different. You could still be a short, but the market demands respect right now. It just beat each one of us and there you are - still trying to collar it !

Smile, it could have been worse. It could have touched 300 !

Happy hunting.



To: Smart Investor who wrote (16972)1/4/1999 5:46:00 PM
From: Chuck Molinary  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 27307
 
Hi Smart,
Hope you had a great new year! Did you exit GEER? Dropped 17% today.

I was disappointed to see YHOO rally to 248 from 242 at the close. I still don't think there is any conviction to the rally as we only saw half the normal daily volume. Without that bounceback I thought the real downdraft could begin. Nevertheless, I'm still convinced we'll see the mother of all bloodlettings in this stock and my short remains intact. Presstek, IOM, and Zitel will look like bluechips compared to Yahoo.

My longs were on fire today: COMS, CATP, and NAVR leading the charge. Running strong out of the gates.....

Good luck sir (or madam you still haven't identified yourself by name),
ctm