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Technology Stocks : America On-Line (AOL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Voltaire who wrote (1414)	1/4/1999 10:57:00 PM
From: BomboochaBoy	Respond to of 41369

On Christmas Sales, the Net has Arrived. Now Who's Got Staying Power? Reference to AOL in this story, which came out Saturday. The 13-million subscribers number is dated, of course, since AOL now has 15 million. iionline.com Individual Investor On-line Analyst: Steve Smith The books are now closed on the first official Internet Christmas and it looks like sales figures have exceeded even the most optimistic estimates. Initial numbers for online sales are approaching $5 billion -- more than double '97's $2.3 billion in sales from Thanksgiving to New Year's. Yes, the Net has seemingly limitless potential, but it still requires good management to execute good business plans. Like a goldrush, many companies have created enormous wealth for themselves not by delivering actual gold (profits) but by merely selling the maps (business models) that may or may not lead to the treasure. But some companies are positioning themselves to be global corporate giants. In attempt distinguish between the companies that will leave investors bloody and the ones that will provide for early retirement, let's focus on a few and their various earnings prospects -- or lack there of. What sectors will allow for several success stories and which will be dominated by a few? Who shall perish by fire and who by water? The portal or search engine field will probably dominated by less than a handful of names. America Online (NASDAQ:AOL) remains the cream of the crop in terms of market share and business model. With more than 13 million subscribers, the company is becoming nicely profitable. AOL is expected to have fiscal 99 EPS of $0.56 on $3.9 billion in revenues. Its recent addition to the S&P 500 validates it as the premier web business. The only other portal that posts positive earnings is Yahoo (NASDAQ:YHOO) which is expected to earn $0.43 per share in fiscal 99. The others -- Excite (NASDAQ:XCIT), Lycos (NASDAQ:LCOS) and Infoseek (NASDAQ:SEEK) -- will all post losses. They may have value as a strategic partner for some larger media company, as was the case with Infoseek and its alliance with Disney (NYSE:DIS), but otherwise will be also-rans in the portal world. In the e-commerce realm, there's room for many companies to succeed. Some new Net-based businesses are making traditional brick and mortar retailing models an anachronism. Others, like Dell (NASDAQ:DELL), are using the e-commerce to boost sales and breath new life into their business. The Gap (NYSE:GPS) and Sharper Image are two other good examples; both have increased internet sales without cannibalizing store revenues. Now the juicy part. It's firms like Books-a-Million (NASDAQ:BAMM), Ebay (NASDAQ:EBAY) and CDNow (NASDAQ:CDNW) that are driving the current bubble. Eye-popping market caps, coupled with dizzying daily stock price swings make a mockery of fundamental research. It remains to be seen whether these outfits will ever be profitable. And a troubling question remains: If many of these small retailers that have established a Web presence posted merely mediocre sales in the past, why do investors conclude that their sales will now soar? If you're looking for an appealing category, think online brokers. They represent real progress and a new way of doing business. Sure, there will always be a need for financial experts for complex deals, but do I really need to pay an extra $100 to a broker to place a phone call for me? I'd rather click on the 'buy' button myself and save $90 and not listen to sales pitch. Recently, Schwab (NYSE:SCH) surpassed Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER) in value. Schwab's trading at 65 times earnings bothers me far less than Ubid (NASDAQ:UBID), which trades at an incalculable multiple. Bottom Line: A shakeout is coming and we all know it. But if you do your homework, pick the right horse and have the stomach for the wild ride that will ensue you may be able to retire to some very green pastures and live the life of a champion stud. The flip side is the glue factory.

To: Voltaire who wrote (1414)	1/4/1999 11:06:00 PM
From: SOROS	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 41369

AOL, QWST, USW, MindSpring, etc.-- what a bunch of babies. They want their cake and eat it too. ATT/TCI are building the system, and I say, if they want to direct all the business to ATHM, then it is their right. This is more of the same old crap (forgive my french) of trying to impose "equality" in every area of life. Companies should be able to do/hire/run/direct as they see fit with no imposed regulations (as long as they are not harming the environment, etc.). I say they will toss this out, and you will see a major power shift from AOL type connections to ATHM's business model. I think we will soon see ATHM's market cap go up in direct proportion to AOL's coming down. I remain, SOROS

To: Voltaire who wrote (1414)	1/5/1999 9:10:00 AM
From: im a survivor	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 41369

TO ALL : In scanning over the posts I see quite a few : " Does anybody know what AOL will do tomorrow...I am so confused" " should I sell now and buy back lower " " what will AOL do long term " " is AOL over priced " " are the internets due for a letdown " And many, many more. First, if any of us knew what AOL was going to do tomorrow, next month or next year, we would be filthy rich, retired and not wasting time on bulletin boards.....we would market those crystal balls that told us the future and go buy a country somewhere to live out the rest of our lives. Secondly, if you are concerned about a $6 drop in AOL, then this is not the stock for you. $6 is nothing. When you invest in this type of company, you must be aware, and accept that big swings can, and will happen. If you can't stomach the swings, go buy something more stable. I also don't understand why so many people do back flips when we see a $20 rise, but then get their pants in a frizzy on a few dollar drop. If you weren't asking the question 2 days ago " what's wrong ", when the stock was up, don't ask that question now, only 2 days later, after a $6 drop. That is just plain ridiculous. AOL is not some fly by night company. They will not go from Gorilla to monkey in 2 days. If you felt good 2 days ago, you should feel better now, because you can buy more at a cheaper price. Lastly, everybody do themselves a favor and do a case study like I did comparing 10 or more relatively similar, yet diverse companies over a 5 plus year time frame. If you had watched these stocks on a daily basis, you would have seen big rises and big falls...lot's and lots of movement. Maybe you bought and sold during this time. The end result however, is the people that bought these companies...and HELD these companies, fared SO MUCH BETTER, then ones that daytraded or ones that sold too early to lock in a nice profit or because they were panicking over a short term loss. Lets face it - if you bought DELL at $20 a share 10 splits ago, it would have been tempting to sell after a split or 2 and a $50 share price. I mean, a nice 300% - 400% profit aint too shabby...I think I will sell and lock it in. Yea, well do ya think the person that sold DELL, Microsoft and etc, etc, etc, etc, 3 years ago, is happy as he sits and calculates how much money he lost out on by selling too early. AOL is no different and the bottom line is 1 of 2 things. you either don't believe in AOL, in which case you should sell your shares or you do believe in AOL, in which case you should keep your shares. But either way...have fun looking at it on a daily basis if you wish, but don't get yourself in a tizzy if it jumps $20 up or down. AOL is gonna be a big mean gorilla for the next few years and those that accumulate and hold will be happy campers. those that didn't buy will wish they had, and those that bought, but sold early will kick themselves in the rear for the next 10 years for panicking and selling their shares in the best performing stock of the last few years. lastly...a happy and healthy 1999 to one and all.