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To: JACK R. SMITH JR. who wrote (8958)1/5/1999 3:41:00 PM
From: Bruce A. Thompson  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 14226
 
Off Topic

AMZN: This stock is selling for 44 x sales.It has 158.9MM shares authorized and 60MM shares in the float which as of Dec 8th, 18MM had been sold short. The stock is currently selling at 107 times book value and 40 times sales. When the mania is over, what will it take in sales to keep the price where it is today?

At 40 x eps, and today's stock price of $127 takes $3.175 in after tax earnings per share. Lets be generous and say after tax earnings are 20% of sales. (not on a good day, but we will use this figure anyway)
$3.175 divided by 20% = $15.875 per share in sales X 158.9MM shares = $2,522,537,500 IN SALES! Yes folks, that's Two point Five Billion in sales from an internet book seller.

Lets consider that fully 1/2 of all the people that read, own a computer, and have a credit card in America buy from AMZN. That's 20MM customers spending an average of $126 each, yearly, at AMZN.

If that happens, we would be better off investing in United Parcel Service!

Bruce