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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ilaine who wrote (42211)	1/5/1999 12:16:00 AM
From: Alias Shrugged	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Hi CB. >>> Is it possible for us to learn our lessons from history, and change our ways, and avoid disaster? I know that it doesn't look as if we will actually do that, but is it even possible that we could?>>> Have very much enjoyed your line of questioning. I think that a bust is inevitable following a great boom (or worse, the development of a bubble). Learning from history would involve not letting booms get so far out of hand; this is why MB and others are so ticked at their buddy Alan. Learning from history would involve letting mistakes have consequences, would involve allowing enterprises to fail (especially banks), and would involve efforts at not letting enterprises (especially banks [and hedge Funds!!!]) become too large to fail. But we are past that point - the world is awash in capacity and folks (countries, companies and individuals) have gorged themselves on debt. Re: Happy Girl. There are two kinds of traders/investors - the Bullet-Ridden and those who feel Bullet-Proof. The Bullet-Ridden trade more cautiously - they have witnessed the power of the market and its potential to destroy one's wealth. Right now, this market seems to be populated by hordes of the Bullet-Proof. Feeling bullet-proof and trading accordingly is the surest way to move into the bullet-ridden category. Mike P.S. I'd like to see AR "irriated" and apoplectic again - tell him you see CSCO easily moving to over $200 by April or May <GGG>

To: Ilaine who wrote (42211)	1/5/1999 9:49:00 AM
From: Mike M2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

CB, the only thing we learn from history is that we fail to learn from history- Santayana hohoho In March 1929 Paul Warburg -who played a major role in the establishment of the Federal Reserve System in the U.S. said : " History, which has a painful way of repeating itself, has taught mankind that speculative over-expansion invariably ends in over-contraction and distress. If a stock exchange debauch is quickly arrested by prompt and determined action, it is not too much to hope that a shrinkage of inflated stock prices may be brought about without seriously affecting the wider circle of general business. If orgies of unrestrained speculation are permitted to spread too far, however, the ultimate collapse is certain not only to affect the speculators themselves, but to also bring about a general depression involving the entire country." ..." When the savings of the masses are deposited as margins for Stock Exchange speculations, and when the extravagant use of funds for speculative purposes absorbs so much of the nation's credit supply that it threatens to cripple the country's regular business , then there does not seem to be any doubt as to the direction in which the Federal Reserve System ought to exercise its influence quickly and forcefully. People who express fear that increase in the Federal Reserve Bank's rediscount rates might hurt business overlook the far greater hurt the country will have to suffer if their advice to permit the situation 'to work itself out' were followed...." IMO the time for preventative action has long since past and there is no way to avoid the tough love in store for all. Look to SEA and Japan - their Central Bank policies have done little to mitigate the damage brought on by the bursting of their bubbles. Mike