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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jack T. Pearson who wrote (3274)	1/5/1999 2:30:00 AM
From: Smooth Drive	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

THROUGH MY ROSE TINTED GLASSES The DOW INDUSTRIALS closed up 2.84 points at 9184.27, but down a 33.72 points or .37% from one week ago. The DJIA has closed down twice in the last eleven trading days. The TRANSPORTS closed down 31.66 points at 3117.65 or 1.01%, but up 73.75 points (2.42%) from last week. The UTILITIES were down .39 of a point at 311.91 and down 2.63 points from last week. The NYSE Comp closed down slightly, as did the S&P. The NAZ closed up 45.02 points or 2.08% at 2208.05 and up 121.91 or 5.84% from last week. OVERBOUGHT/OVERSOLD (OB/OS) This is a daily calculated OB/OS indicator spliced together with masking tape with my understanding of how Birinyi calculates his. It uses a 50 DEMA and looks back one year at the highest and lowest, as a percent, that a stock or index has traded above or below its 50 DEMA. Thus, creating a so called range of OB/OS. (Also listed are a few moving averages.) 50.00 OVER OVER INDEX CLOSE BOTTOM DEMA TOP SOLD BOUGHT DJIA 9184.27 7596.53 8905.70 9777.27 0.00% 31.96% DJTA 3117.65 2358.65 2976.96 3261.41 0.00% 49.46% DJUA 311.91 288.84 307.47 339.82 0.00% 13.72% NYSE 594.12 484.28 565.99 609.90 0.00% 64.06% S&P 1228.10 997.53 1160.60 1264.38 0.00% 65.04% NAZ 2208.05 1543.73 1943.74 2233.57 0.00% 91.19% 52 52 WEEK WEEK 5 13 40 50 INDEX LOW HIGH CLOSE DEMA DEMA DEMA DEMA DJIA 7379.70 9457.95 9184.27 9201.25 9128.03 8961.31 8905.70 DJTA 2260.24 3735.38 3117.65 3103.90 3060.33 2991.79 2976.96 DJUA 259.51 323.65 311.91 312.13 311.39 308.54 307.47 NYSE 462.69 602.83 594.12 592.84 585.58 570.22 565.99 S&P 912.83 1248.81 1228.10 1227.75 1212.77 1172.11 1160.60 NAZ 1343.87 2233.57 2208.05 2157.10 2096.48 1974.08 1943.74 As I look at my rose tinted charts, I see the following: My primary leading indicator - the NYSE Bullish Percent Index, is more than holding its own in Bull Correction status at 52.3%, which is up slightly from a week ago at 51.2. This means that 52.3% of the equity stocks on the NYSE are on a P&F buy signal. This is not at all overbought. We are getting back to some high index readings but we are not in bad shape on the bullish percent indexes. There are still a lot of people left to buy the stocks. The high low bullish percent charts for the NYSE, ASE and OTC have all reversed back up, and none of the referenced charts are in overbought territory (70% or higher). All three advance declines are up and higher than 10 days ago. Every one of my P&F index hand charts are on a buy signal and not showing much weakness. My leading indicator of the DJIA is the DJUA, and it's just hanging in there. Transports are strong and creating a real interesting chart. The NYSE Comp broke an old resistance today that was set back in July. It's at its highest now. Wana see it? 602 1 600 X 598 X 596 X 594 X 592 X 590 X 588 X + < Bullish Resistance Line 586 X + 584 X + < Spread double top buy signal 582 X X 580 X O + X 578 X O X X 576 X O + X O X 574 X O + X O X 572 X O X X O X 570 X O X O X O X 568 X O X O X O X 566 X X O O X O X 564 X O X O O X 562 X O X O X + < Revised Bullish Support Line 560 X O O X + 558 X O X + 556 X O X + 554 X O + 552 + 550 Trading range from 10/28 until the spread double top buy signal on 12/23. Bullish price objective of 698 (this is an incomplete count until there is a reversal). Will/could there be a pull back now in some of the charts? You bet. But, the bullish percent indexes are not in bad shape at all. Hell, 70% (21) of the Dow stocks are on buy signals - so it's in early overbought territory but just got there today. I look for it to get back up to 90%. On the broad markets, I live and die with my P&F bullish percent and regular index charts. Never let me down. Can't. They tell you just exactly what is happening. They always lead the market by a couple of months. I see a little trading range with no big downside at this time and then up and away. I'm buying. How much higher? I'll tell you later. Take care, Eric