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Technology Stocks : RATIONAL SOFTWARE- BUY OR HOLD -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Randy Ellingson who wrote (2755)	1/5/1999 1:00:00 AM
From: ratlong	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3115

Randy, As a fellow long term guy, I hear you. However, this quarters numbers has long term implications- both good and bad. If they hit 20, it makes the end of year completely in the bag (.17 for Q4). It makes FY00 have to be upped (and upgrades will most likely go with revised earnings estimates). It also starts a "trend" of exceeding estimates by a few cents. If they do it while backlogging revs, watch out. If they do it while backlogging AND without Performance Studio revs, really watch out. Either way, .20 will be a capper for analysts to completely revise their projections for this company. The other side is that by exceeding by a couple of cents, Levy is, without a doubt, elevating the pressure to deliver. I feel totally confident with this company except the planned insider sales. Have not seen any executed, but I still don't know what to make of it. It makes me nervous in a situation where I would otherwise put RATL away for a couple of years and make money on it.