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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: HG who wrote (42233)	1/5/1999 1:06:00 AM
From: Ilaine	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Happy Girl, my wall full of paper certificates is just that, a wall full of paper certificates. It doesn't make anything I say more valid. You were correct to point that out. With respect to reality, I think one of the gentlemen (can't remember which) posted my sentiment exactly: reality bites. You'll know reality soon enough, when it bites you. If, after being bitten, you prefer to believe it is still relative, well, that is consistency.

To: HG who wrote (42233)	1/5/1999 1:59:00 AM
From: Skeeter Bug	Respond to of 132070

first off, i didn't mean to trash you or give that perception. it just came across that you were willing to sling mud when it was to your advantage and then claim you don't sling mud when it was to your advantage. seemed kind of self serving. i think part of the reason for this "comabativeness," for lack of a better term, is that us bears tend to stand in awe of what we see and call everyone crazy who participates. doesn't mean they are crazy. they think and view things differently so it is perfectly rational to them. this can put people on the defensive. remember, the view of any one person is just that - not more right or wrong than your view and, ultimately, the future may prove everyone to be a dolt. or, should i say, WILL prove... ;-) >>Collective perception is what you mean by reality<< ABSOLUTELY NOT. collective perception is just that perception. reality is reality. god knows reality or nobody does. we humans strive, or at least ought to, to come more in line with reality - all the while knowing we are limited in are ability to fully understand reality. this means that the human egocentric view is tossed out. we aren't the center of the universe and our perceptions are not all important. everyone can perceive that the nets will be minting money in 2002, but that doesn't make it so. assuming there is a disconnect, and i believe there is a MASSIVE one, the question becomes, when does the herd (big money, not necessarily smart money, not necessarily dumb money) perceive that their prior perception was wrong? that is when they sell. when is that going to occur? if i knew i'd be spending my lottery money winnings right now ;-) there is an assumption, which i believe to be valid, here. when i crunch the business numbers and the positive and negative factors of e-commerce (as i perceive them - the reality may be close, worse or better), my "calculator" comes up, "blaaah - no big deal." i'm not impressed with just top line growth from a small base. i want bottom line growth. so far the net companies results, or lack thereof, match my view. they do have TREMENDOUS top line growth from a small base. my guess is that if the top line growth slows substantially while these companies are still generating little, if any cash, that reality bites into these share prices. if the bottom line keeps pace with the top line - a MAJOR change from current conditions - for a long time into the future then current valuations will yield avg market returns or so - over the long term.. another view is that these stocks will collapse if net outflows occur out of the stock market (higher interest rates, for example). i don't feel comfortable even speaking about future interest rates so this is a wild card to me. could be higher, could be lower... another view is that i'm dead wrong and the mall is a dinosaur... and people will wait in cyberspace to pay more money to etailers than they do at discount stores... imho, uncertainty is discounted in a rational market and not rewarded...