To: Wallace Rivers who wrote (482 ) 1/5/1999 1:29:00 PM From: Wright Sullivan Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 721
Wallace- I do not have any comments on the first two issues you mentioned, less rapid license growth (I assume this means that they aren't selling as much CMMS software) and greater a/r outstanding. We'll just have to see what the quarter brings on license growth. Regarding e-commerce market competition, there is no question that many companies do or want to compete in this space. Personally, I think DSTM has an edge in the maintenance market in that e-commerce is a natural extension of what they are already doing there. In other words, it is a good fit for their existing customers and should also attract new CMMS/eMRO customers. No, DSTM won't dominate e-commerce in general, but if they can dominate CMMS e-commerce, even for a few years, then DSTM shareholders should benefit greatly. But the estimates I have seen do not include much eMRO earnings, so anything DSTM does there should be gravy, and it could be a lot of gravy. Balance sheet looks OK to me, but I think they are being punished severely for the writeoffs of acquisitions as R&D, and more importantly doing so with little announcement. For example, a few months ago DSTM had a conference call to announce earnings which were good, and many an attaboy and pat on the back was heard. I bought some DSTM early the next morning. Then, later in the day, they announced that they were taking an acquisition writeoff charge in the quarter that basically wiped out that quarter's earnings. I do not recall hearing even the possibility of a writeoff mentioned in the conference call. That, in my opinion, may have left many analysts feeling blindsided by DSTM. And such an effect can have lingering consequences, making them look like they don't know what they're doing financially or when dealing with the street. Having said all that, I am very bullish on DSTM over the next 2-3 years. I "tripled up" my position when DSTM dropped to around 9 recently, so even though I felt burned by DSTM, the opportunity looks huge to me. All IMHO only, of course, and I will be watching closely the quarter's performance on the points you raised. -Wright