Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Buffettology -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: cfimx who wrote (949)	1/8/1999 10:58:00 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4691

Twister: regarding your post: application rather than duplication, etc. Been thinking about it every day and making notes- I'm unable to clearly articulate issues which are paradoxical and between which I am conflicted. I am a recipient of WEB's expertise having bought and held one of "his" stocks for a substantial profit; yet I am unable to find any Buffett stocks on my own nor am I able to see from the media or from anyone on this thread, that they've actually bought recent Buffett stocks. Now I am referring to WMT - no reference to it by anyone in the media in '95 certainly or '96 or '97 (I think) of it being a Buffett stock. No reference by anyone that ARW was/is a Buffett stock in the media in '98 or that anyone here (this thread) that they were buying either of these stocks. (Some other stocks I've mentioned before --General Foods, Solomon --maybe these go too far back for some younger people on this thread-- but same thing) I see nothing wrong with prescient journalists (ref: jhg in KC) who who've been able to identify and purchase the best performing stocks of the year or two. There's some indication to me that buying the best stocks in an up market is a tactic that produces profits. (Sort of like the Gerald Loeb idea perhaps.) On the other hand, if that tactic is the only strategy that someone uses -- that is VERY dangerous IMO. And in this market of 1999, to propose it now as one tactic or the only strategy, (e.g. to keep adding to positions in DELL, etc.) while it might work, it must be obvious that this is VERY dangerous. (note: maybe I'm incorrectly inferring that this was 'proposed' or 'suggested') The four issues I see with Buffettology now are: 1)identifying Buffett stocks, 2) waiting to purchase at the right price 3)having the courage to purchase 3) having the patience to secure gains. On the other hand, that's just what WEB would say is important. All you need is that one good pitch. And maybe that's what I did with my one Buffett stock, and it worked out very well, so what is my problem?? -g- Back to strategy: I assume that the overarching goal is to make profits in the stock market. This may not be true per Buffett (first rule: don't lose). The way I look at it is that the market is at an all time high. If someone is in the market, maybe they aren't beating the average mutual fund or the S&P, but my opinion is, their portfolio should be at the highest level it's EVER been at. If they are Graham investors and have reduced the allocation of stocks (and increased bond or cash component),I include them too -- the total portfolio value for these investors should be at their highest point. On the one hand, it seem to me that long time Buffett followers who've bought and held are likely (that'd be IMO with no facts to support it) to be in this very good position and also followers of Graham-Doddsville (IBM/T/GM, etc. cash??) as well as "momentum players" (jhg in KC?). To me, if someone says they are not in such a good place, then I say they have done something very wrong. On the other hand, if they are out of the market and holding for Buffett stocks,then I'm forced to say that I think investing is a process and the final outcome depends on the goals of each individual. The game isn't over until it's over and it might be possible to apply Buffettology. I'm suspicious though-- if good money isn't being made or hasn't been made in this market, I just wonder how such Buffettologists will buy and hold when IMO it's hard to id Buffett stocks and step up when things are bleak at the buy point. I will go back and think some more about duplication vs. application. Paul Senior