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Biotech / Medical : XOMA. Bull or Bear? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JOEBT1 who wrote (8193)	1/5/1999 1:30:00 PM
From: aknahow	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 17367

I can't calculate it. Cacaito can if he sees your post and has the time. The problem with the data in the article you saw, which is similar to the one I posted yesterday, is that one is never sure they are not mixing in meningitis cases with meningococcemia cases, regardless of what the article refers to. Second if trials in the U.K. have resulted in treating 150 patients with Neuprex the data would be influenced if Neuprex worked. Agreed it would not reduce the mortality rate from 20 to 10% And I do agree that early treatment in the U.K. is supposed to have reduced the death rate, and yes I feel that this makes it logical for XOMA to want to obtain more patients to assure statistical significance. BTW looks like volume will be well above a million shares today.

To: JOEBT1 who wrote (8193)	1/5/1999 6:01:00 PM
From: Cacaito	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 17367

I lost access to the computer with Statistica software, but we could get back to a previous post: Message 3062902 And one could see that 200 patients is more than enough to provide statistical significant even when one doubles the rate for the phase II BPI group (4% to 10%) and lowers the expected death rate for the placebo group to 20%. Now there are 300 plus patients recruited as per last numbers offered by George the Wowanka. The trial is not just one treatment group, but two treatment groups and one placebo group. The groups are: 1. Placebo - control - no BPI 2. BPI, high Glasgow scale group (moderately sick patients) 3. BPI, low Glasgow scale group ( severely sick patients) This was one of the reason the trial went on for a higher number of patients, plus the agreement with the FDA to conclude the trial end of 1998 (my recollection of the story). Now, the trial is very well design for Xoma's chances with the FDA, if BPI is not good due to being very late on starting the drug then one have the answer, if earlier is worth it then one will have the answer, if it is worth it in both groups then great. Of course, if it does not work in either see you in another thread. Regarding the mortality numbers in England and Bpi as a possible cause is just too much to ask for. First: are this blood culture confirmed? are they all pure shock type patients (ussually about 20% of the total at any time, and this is the group that the BPI trial is aim to)I do not think so, I do think that one have here the meningitis non shock patients included and this just altered everything and to try to calculate is futile. Back to just wait for final report.