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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: mauser96 who wrote (13844)1/5/1999 7:50:00 PM
From: Jake0302  Respond to of 74651
 
Lucius Lamar wrote

"The Dow theory was invented in the days when the railroads carried most industrial products. The
theory was that if companies were making a lot of goods and profits the railroads should have lots of
shipping volume and profits, so the transports should confirm actions of the industrials. Today the
DJTA has a lot of airlines, goods are carried by truck etc. so the underlying theory isn't valid. Despite
this it seems to work more often than not. Market breadth means that most stocks are going up rather
than averages being pulled by a few big caps. That becomes important if you own small cap rather
than big cap stocks. Historically wide breadth ( a good A/D line) has been good for the market. In the
last few years computers have allowed big companies to get ever more dominant so the value of this
may be changing."

Thanks for this useful background on the Dow Transport theory. It just doesn't seem to be a big deal in the digital economy. Consider the exception to the underperformance of the transports: FDX, which has been going up because Barrons said it was a cheap internet stock. The exception that proves the rule no longer applies?