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Gold/Mining/Energy : Harken Energy Corporation (HEC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Razorbak who wrote (4017)	1/5/1999 10:47:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Respond to of 5504

Razor, better being a chicken than sorry. I am still a little cynical about this exercise and trying to see it from the point of view of HEC and the bandits. It is clear that HEC would rather take its chances on a better crude market sometime in the next 12 months than allow repricing under $2/share. But, on the other hand, they are elongating the time period in which this Damocles sword is over their head. From the point of view of the bandits, what is in it for them? Are they big holders of the common in another accounts and their interest and that of the common holders are the same? I doubt it. Have they shorted enough when the stock was around $3 or $4 and covered in the last decline, and are they simply willing to play that game again? (the double whamo of relief from low price repricing and results from Islero in the next few weeks could get the stock above $3 or higher). Are they so piggish that they believe that after another round next DSecember they could get it under $1? In that case they must take a serious bet on crude also not reviving in the next 12 months, and I think this is not a bet that hedgers engage in (unless they covered this eventuality with options on crude itself). If the stock can get over the hump here at $2.5 to $2.75 (the area from which it was returned last time), I think that there is a very good likely hood it will rapidly gain another 50% or so (to $3.5 to $4). Is that their game? Or maybe, as Steve said, there are no bandits and just very generous lenders with the sole goal of seeing HEC succeed? Too many questions, and I have no answers, but my bet is that the stock's behavior will soon tell us. Zeev