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Microcap & Penny Stocks : TSIS: WHAT IS GOING ON? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John S. Baker who wrote (4980)	1/6/1999 9:03:00 AM
From: jmt	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6931

John: Thanks for the lesson. In reviewing the 2 charts you highlighted showing OBV and MFI, comparability is difficult. One could manipulate what they want to see in OBV based upon the time period selected (which is the problem with many statistical sampling techniques). The reason why this seems important in this case is the obvious end of year distortion in the MFI chart. Since MFI is not "smoothed" as is OBV, they appear to be giving two opposite indications, when in fact they may not be. ADI looks to be an interesting measure, but as few stocks with a market of $50M have institutional ownership, I would assume this is more appropriate for larger cap stocks. Have you considered in the ADI calculation using a percentage of shares outstanding rather than some absolute value? This may adjust for variations in total shares outstanding and share price, and possibly could even be used to show lower level (retail) accumulation in the penny stocks. Thanks for your insight. jmt

To: John S. Baker who wrote (4980)	1/6/1999 9:38:00 AM
From: John S. Baker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6931

OFF TOPIC.... To show the value of MFI (Money Flow Indicator), take a look at this chart for DGTC over the last six months: bigcharts.com Note that in September, the stock couldn't struggle above 7 1/2. To some observers, this might indicate that the stock had hit a wall and was not going to go any higher. But the MFI almost doubled during that "stagnant" period. Somebody was buying DGTC, and a lot of it, but had set a limit price for his purchases of 7 1/2 per share. Once he had bought his fill, support for the price fell briefly, and then demand outstripped supply until about December 1st. Note also how the MFI has risen steadily throughout the whole period. This would suggest that the entire dip below $11 was a magnificent buying opportunity. Weak hands ("retail") were bailing out but strong hands were staying, and buying. JSb.

To: John S. Baker who wrote (4980)	1/6/1999 11:04:00 AM
From: gregor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6931

John : Actually since Dec 15 on the link you provided shows obv of positive 600,000 shares ( having moved from neg 200,000 to positive 400,000, a 600,000 share swing ), while the 30 day 0bv shows positive 200,000, which is less than I reported. The weakness is that the move in share price is not weighted. i.e. a 1/16 point move would be given the same value as a 1/4 point move. One would assume that statistically the skewing would even out over time so I am going to watch closely, this indicator over the next several months. We are definitely under accumulation, however. What also strikes me is that a relatively small "balance" of money can move this stock a long ways. If the positive "balance" of money since Dec 15 was a positive 200,000 dollars and the stock moved 5 cents then one could assume that a positive "balance" of a few million would easily place us in the 50 60 cent range again......gregor