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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tito L. Nisperos Jr. who wrote (27549)	1/6/1999 10:49:00 AM
From: John Koligman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

This has always been one of the best threads on SI. That said, if one had listened to many of the technical and industry experts here, it would have cost one a 'bunch' of money. I've been in the stock since the 28 level, and remember all the talk about where AMAT would bottom. Numbers like '17' and '11' were bandied about. The point is, industry knowledge many times seems to mean squat in this stock market game. Timing and momemtum can be just as important in making good bucks. That said, I'll go back to sleep and continue reading this fine thread. I must admit, it is getting tempting to take some profits here. Regards, John

To: Tito L. Nisperos Jr. who wrote (27549)	1/6/1999 1:46:00 PM
From: Paul V.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Vito and Gottfried, We need to do another high estimate analysis for this year along with the lows. Could you set us up for the survey? Thanks. This DW AMAT's pole of (15) "x's" from the recent shakeout DW low of $40 is the strongest that we have had since 1996. You are correct that AMAT appear stronger during this cycle. Using the DW vertical calculation projections, (15X3=45+40=85) we can expect approximately $85 since this last shakeout. Added to this, IBD's "cup and handle" approach, the cup of $54 has been broken when AMAT hit $55. Now continue momentum will continue on after a brief plateau, (trading range) as investors take profits. Guess our next immediate target is your $63 to $100 scenario. Note, my standard deviation projected high is $101.5967. The previous absolute highs we in 1995 at $119.6 and 1996 at 108.375 in the recent highs. AMAT strength, this cycle, to me has been just amazing, far exceeding what I and other on this site anticipated. We, just four approximately 4 1/2 months ago, were talking about AMAT dropping to the mid teens based on a comparison with the 1996 EPS. We were far weaker, EPS, wise this cycle but still held the $22 (absolute) floor which we hit in 1996. AMAT investors should make a mental TA note of the absolute $22 base which we reached in 1996 and this cycle for future references of possible bottoms and AMAT purchases in the future. Those of us on this site who own AMAT can just sit back and count our paper gains until we convert them to cash in the future. My suggestion when you believe you have a double, triple, etc. cash out, do not worry about the tax consequence like I did last time. I did not want to pay the 40% capital gain tax but held to get into the 20% bracket and road AMAT back down to $22 even though my cost was $13.75. Now, we only have to hold a stock 12 months to be in the 20% tax bracket. Naturally, the above is only my opinions and the data which I have reviewed from the Dorsey Wright site. Readers are reminded the old saving, "caveat emptor (buyer/reader beware)." I will be posting the DW Bull Percentages later today. Paul

To: Tito L. Nisperos Jr. who wrote (27549)	1/6/1999 1:48:00 PM
From: Lester e.	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

Tito and Paul, Hello good friends. Today is my 82nd birthday. What a birthday present. Still holding and still buying. Sticking with AMAT, the leader in a field that is still in its infancy, has been good for me. Buying opportunities may happen again, but this company will continue to grow and serve all of the new technology companies. Whoever succeeds, AMAT will be a part of their success.Stick withe company with the largest R & D. You two are true believers. Katie bar the door. Keep the faith. Lester e.