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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Katherine Derbyshire who wrote (7480)	1/6/1999 12:08:00 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Katherine, Merrill issued a Semi Equipment report this week citing evidence that Korea is back in the DRAM game; that Samsung Fab 9, a greenfield DRAM FAB is being stocked with equipment orders issued 1H99. that Hyundai-LG, NEC, IBM will be forced to ante up or sit out this round of the "no limit, poker game"; that the Samsung decision contradicts the argument that the FarEast financial crisis will prevent those companies from further investments in chip capacity. i.e. - We've got another round of capacity builds underway by the DRAM makers. +++++++++++++++ end of my summary of Merrill ++++++++ IMO, this should be very nice for the DUV food chain. Where other process equipment might be able to be used for some processes, no DRAM maker has the lithography capability to build chips at 0.18µ or smaller feature sizes. Thus, I suspect that the recovery in stock prices is real; that the recovery in earnings will be evident by 2H99; that we are just starting a multi year upcycle. FWIW, (and based upon presuming that Merrill's beliefs turn out to be correct.) Ian.

To: Katherine Derbyshire who wrote (7480)	1/6/1999 2:07:00 PM
From: Ramsey Su	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 10921

Katherine, thanks for the lesson, as usual. After I posted the question, I realized I was wasting time. No one pay attention to fundamentals anymore. Every forum on SI are filled with such optimism that I have never experienced in my 5 short years of full time investment. It does not matter what the news is, it is interpreted as positive. Analysts try to beat each other to the punch, recommending everything that moves as strong buys. I follow a basket of big name big cap tech stocks. The average PE just went past 55 today while the average growth rate is 21. This reminds me of Japan in the early 1990s. What will pop the US bubble? I am going on vacation for 3 weeks so I probably won't find out until I return. Ramsey