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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (7483)	1/6/1999 12:55:00 PM
From: Ian@SI	Respond to of 10921

Zeev, Merrill is estimating 1999 purchases of about $8-$9B by the DRAM makers alone. This compares with about $5or$6B in 1998. If they hold at about 40% of the total market, we could see over $20B revenues for the Capital Equipment makers. I believe the IDC / DataQuest types were forecasting flat at best with their last WAGs. Ian.

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (7483)	1/6/1999 12:56:00 PM
From: Mark Ivan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Zeev, So are you still saying this "Jan rally" is solely for MM distribution? I am stuck (and I mean totally confounded) on what do do with the covered calls on my CYMI (jan 15's). I don't know whether to hold into expiry, roll them to Feb 17.5, or just buy them back. The minute, and I mean too the minute, I'd buy them back, CYMI would tank. Zeev, I can be your turnips new contrary indicator. Whenever I sell calls or buy puts, the stock is GARUNTEED to shoot like a rocket. I can send you my trades and you can look even smarter than you already are. :) So what are the shrivled up turnips saying about the equip sector going into expiry? AMAT had a whole bunch of open interest calls near strike 35 to 40. People are raving bulls right now with the "Jan Rally". So what do you think? Is this rally for MM distribution and the crash coming when people least expect it? Mark Ivan

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (7483)	1/6/1999 2:13:00 PM
From: Math Junkie	Respond to of 10921

Regarding retrenchment, volatility is always to be expected in this sector. I do believe, however, that the question for semi equip business recovery is "when", not "if". I am willing to wait, as I have given up on trying to time the short-term moves. I will say that I am not buying at these prices, with the exception of SVGI, which is still $3 below book value. They are forecast to lose $0.63/share this year, and earn about the same amount next year. They could continue to lose at this rate for four years and their book value would still not get down to today's price.