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Non-Tech : Tulipomania Blowoff Contest: Why and When will it end? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sir Auric Goldfinger who wrote (508)	1/6/1999 1:43:00 PM
From: charger	Respond to of 3543

We have entered the final blowoff phase of this bull market...these moves are making the previous moves of 98 look like chump change. A stock split is just another excuse to run the price back up to old price levels...witness AMZN and CMGI. I predict AMZN will run back up to 200-300 now that is "cheaper" to buy. It is setting up for the greatest short play of all time, so the higher it goes, the better IMO. As I type this, it is at 140, or 420 split adjusted! 200 will come in a couple more days at this rate. Since there are 3 times as many shares in the float, it will get more and more difficult to push the stock higher this go-around, and will sell off more violently than before as well. For now, the buying has become a self fulfilling prophecy, feeding on itself. A genuine melt-up with no perception of danger whatsoever. Glad my date picks have yet to come!

To: Sir Auric Goldfinger who wrote (508)	1/7/1999 12:41:00 PM
From: charger	Respond to of 3543

Man that AMZN sure is getting HEAVY! With triple the float and small lots of 100 or so, it's much more difficult to squeeze the shorts and maintain momentum...very interesting. What a bloodbath this will be one day when margin calls whack the stock for a 50% loss. The intense greed will turn to intense fear in the blink of an eye.

To: Sir Auric Goldfinger who wrote (508)	1/7/1999 10:31:00 PM
From: charger	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3543

Why is the contest weighted more toward the reason rather than the timing of the selloff? If you've ever traded commodities, which these internet stocks clearly resemble, you know that when a parabolic move comes to an end, it doesn't necessarily need a causal event or trigger. These types of moves frequently self correct due to their sheer magnitude, mixed with chaos theory. It seems to me that the date is more difficult/important to determine, as well as more objective to judge. You are going to have issues with the guy who vaguely got the reason correct! Anyway, thanks for providing some fun for this grim community!!! Regards P.S. This thing is about to end in a matter of days IMHO...I've never seen moves like this before. Truly frightening. P.S.S. My new theory is that the market is discounting the possibility that Y2K problems will not materialize...I've read much in the press recently shrugging the issue. Technology will either be our saviour or our undoing, and judgement day is less than a year away. It's almost all or nothing at this point, that's what makes it so scary. We either cruise through to some higher plane/new paradigm/prosperity forever, or crash and burn on the forgotten ash heaps of the 20th century.