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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (27566)	1/6/1999 3:32:00 PM
From: 16yearcycle	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

My Nausea Indicator is flashing brightly; I feel about the same as I did on 10/8, only for the opposite reason. The market is being dominated by speculation and excesses are everywhere. I am still 200% in, but see nothing to buy apart from oil service stocks, which I think will pull back one more time to investors horror, and Brk, which is not going up with the market the past week or so. Does anyone share my dismay? I am selling some tech right now.

To: Gottfried who wrote (27566)	1/6/1999 4:02:00 PM
From: Paul V.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Gottfried, I would suggest a maximum high of $130 (presplit) to catch Tito's this cycles high scenario and low $40(presplit) or $20 post split after we reach our high and then sell off after this up cycle. We can see based on these potential that individuals buying AMAT even that these prices will still be making great money over the next 2-3 years. just my opinions PS jd and st were nearer the lows at $22 and st and ru near the recent highs for 1998. Perhaps we need to ask them<g> Paul

To: Gottfried who wrote (27566)	1/6/1999 5:08:00 PM
From: Paul V.	Respond to of 70976

Gottfried and threaders, Three of the four DW leading indicators are in the upward "X" column. This is very positive for the market. See the following data for your review. SECTOR Percent SECTOR Percent SECTOR Percent SECTOR Percent 12/15/98 12/21/98 12/28/98 1/5/99 10week 49.29 10week 47.46 10week 46.62 10week 59.64 LEADING INDICATOR #1 30week 38.04 30week 42.98 30week 43.3 30week 51.99 LEADING INDICATOR #4 bpaero 41.8 bpaero 41.1 bpaero 41.1 bpaero 57.8 bpasia 52 bpasia 53.1 bpasia 49 bpasia 50 bpauto 51.9 bpauto 52.8 bpauto 52.4 bpauto 58.1 bpbank 47.9 bpbank 48.1 bpbank 48.7 bpbank 50.7 bpbiom 47.2 bpbiom 48.6 bpbiom 49.3 bpbiom 55.7 bpbuil 47.4 bpbuil 43.9 bpbuil 45 bpbuil 48.5 bpbusi 50 bpbusi 48.6 bpbusi 50 bpbusi 54.8 bpchem 42.2 bpchem 43.1 bpchem 45 bpchem 45 bpcomp 55.1 bpcomp 55.7 bpcomp 55 bpcomp 54.7 bpdrug 58 bpdrug 56.6 bpdrug 58 bpdrug 65.7 bpelec 52.7 bpelec 50.8 bpelec 51.6 bpelec 54.4 bpeuro 46.4 bpeuro 46.4 bpeuro 53.6 bpeuro 71.4 bpeuti 75.9 bpeuti 78.3 bpeuti 76.2 bpeuti 75.9 bpfina 49.2 bpfina 57.8 bpfina 58.6 bpfina 60.3 bpfood 52.4 bpfood 52.4 bpfood 54.1 bpfood 57.8 bpfore 57.4 bpfore 55.6 bpfore 53.7 bpfore 53.7 bpgame 42.3 bpgame 42.3 bpgame 42.3 bpgame 44 bpguti 60.6 bpguti 61.4 bpguti 62.9 bpguti 62.3 bpheal 49.3 bpheal 47.5 bpheal 46.9 bpheal 50.8 bphous 51.3 bphous 46.9 bphous 46.9 bphous 54.5 bpinsu 48.2 bpinsu 51.5 bpinsu 54.3 bpinsu 60.5 bplati 55.2 bplati 58.1 bplati 58.6 bplati 58.6 bpleis 40.6 bpleis 41.9 bpleis 42.6 bpleis 46.5 bpmach 43.9 bpmach 40.2 bpmach 39.3 bpmach 45.9 bpmedi 57.1 bpmedi 59.3 bpmedi 65.8 bpmedi 72.6 bpmeta 28.9 bpmeta 26.7 bpmeta 27 bpmeta 27.4 bpnyse 52.4 bpnyse 51.2 bpnyse 52.94 bpnyse 56 NEW YORK STOCK EXCHG. bpoil 18.2 bpoil 17.1 bpoil 17.2 bpoil 18 bpoils 22.5 bpoils 27.7 bpoils 25.7 bpoils 29.7 bpopti 58 bpopti 58.14 bpopti 58.89 bpopti 63.38 LEADING INDICATOR #2 bpotc 55.5 bpotc 56 bpotc 51.79 bpotc 59.2 OVER-THE-COUNTER bpprec 24.6 bpprec 24.6 bpprec 24.6 bpprec 28.6 bpreal 39.3 bpreal 38.3 bpreal 37.8 bpreal 39.3 bprest 34.4 bprest 36.5 bprest 39.6 bprest 43.2 bpreta 53.9 bpreta 53.4 bpreta 54.4 bpreta 58.2 bpsavi 44.8 bpsavi 45 bpsavi 45.9 bpsavi 47.6 bpsemi 60.4 bpsemi 58.4 bpsemi 59 bpsemi 64 bpsoft 57.9 bpsoft 57.3 bpsoft 57.1 bpsoft 56.9 bpstee 39.9 bpstee 30.3 bpstee 30.3 bpstee 31.8 bptele 55 bptele 54.4 bptele 54.1 bptele 60.2 bptext 42.6 bptext 39.3 bptext 38.3 bptext 47.6 bptrans 48.9 bptrans 47.8 bptrans 46.7 bptrans 51.1 bpwall 52.6 bpwall 47.4 bpwall 52.6 bpwall 57.9 bpwast 21.5 bpwast 24.1 bpwast 24.4 bpwast 26.9 HiLo 51.8 HiLo 47.5 HiLo 48.1 HiLo 68.4 LEADING INDICATOR #3 NUMERICAL ORDER (BELOW) SECTOR Percent SECTOR Percent SECTOR Percent SECTOR Percent 12/15/98 12/21/98 12/28/98 1/5/99 bpeuti 75.9 bpeuti 78.3 bpeuti 76.2 bpeuti 75.9 bpguti 60.6 bpguti 61.4 bpmedi 65.8 bpmedi 72.6 bpsemi 60.4 bpmedi 59.3 bpguti 62.9 bpeuro 71.4 bpopti 58 bpsemi 58.4 bpsemi 59 HiLo 68.4 LEADING INDICATOR #3 bpdrug 58 bpopti 58.14 bpopti 58.89 bpdrug 65.7 bpsoft 57.9 bplati 58.1 bplati 58.6 bpsemi 64 bpfore 57.4 bpfina 57.8 bpfina 58.6 bpopti 63.38 LEADING INDICATOR #2 bpmedi 57.1 bpsoft 57.3 bpdrug 58 bpguti 62.3 bpotc 55.5 bpdrug 56.6 bpsoft 57.1 bpinsu 60.5 bplati 55.2 bpotc 56 bpcomp 55 bpfina 60.3 bpcomp 55.1 bpcomp 55.7 bpreta 54.4 bptele 60.2 bptele 55 bpfore 55.6 bpinsu 54.3 10week 59.64 LEADING INDICATOR #1 bpreta 53.9 bptele 54.4 bptele 54.1 bpotc 59.2 OVER-THE-COUNTER bpelec 52.7 bpreta 53.4 bpfood 54.1 bplati 58.6 bpwall 52.6 bpasia 53.1 bpfore 53.7 bpreta 58.2 bpnyse 52.4 bpauto 52.8 bpeuro 53.6 bpauto 58.1 bpfood 52.4 bpfood 52.4 bpnyse 52.94 bpwall 57.9 bpasia 52 bpinsu 51.5 bpwall 52.6 bpfood 57.8 bpauto 51.9 bpnyse 51.2 bpauto 52.4 bpaero 57.8 HiLo 51.8 bpelec 50.8 bpotc 51.79 bpsoft 56.9 bphous 51.3 bpbusi 48.6 bpelec 51.6 bpnyse 56 NEW YORK STOCK EXCHG. bpbusi 50 bpbiom 48.6 bpbusi 50 bpbiom 55.7 bpheal 49.3 bpbank 48.1 bpbiom 49.3 bpbusi 54.8 10week 49.29 bptrans 47.8 bpasia 49 bpcomp 54.7 bpfina 49.2 HiLo 47.5 bpbank 48.7 bphous 54.5 bptrans 48.9 bpheal 47.5 HiLo 48.1 bpelec 54.4 bpinsu 48.2 10week 47.46 bphous 46.9 bpfore 53.7 bpbank 47.9 bpwall 47.4 bpheal 46.9 30week 51.99 LEADING INDICATOR #4 bpbuil 47.4 bphous 46.9 bptrans 46.7 bptrans 51.1 bpbiom 47.2 bpeuro 46.4 10week 46.62 bpheal 50.8 bpeuro 46.4 bpsavi 45 bpsavi 45.9 bpbank 50.7 bpsavi 44.8 bpbuil 43.9 bpchem 45 bpasia 50 bpmach 43.9 bpchem 43.1 bpbuil 45 bpbuil 48.5 bptext 42.6 30week 42.98 30week 43.3 bptext 47.6 bpgame 42.3 bpgame 42.3 bpleis 42.6 bpsavi 47.6 bpchem 42.2 bpleis 41.9 bpgame 42.3 bpleis 46.5 bpaero 41.8 bpaero 41.1 bpaero 41.1 bpmach 45.9 bpleis 40.6 bpmach 40.2 bprest 39.6 bpchem 45 bpstee 39.9 bptext 39.3 bpmach 39.3 bpgame 44 bpreal 39.3 bpreal 38.3 bptext 38.3 bprest 43.2 30week 38.04 bprest 36.5 bpreal 37.8 bpreal 39.3 bprest 34.4 bpstee 30.3 bpstee 30.3 bpstee 31.8 bpmeta 28.9 bpoils 27.7 bpmeta 27 bpoils 29.7 bpprec 24.6 bpmeta 26.7 bpoils 25.7 bpprec 28.6 bpoils 22.5 bpprec 24.6 bpprec 24.6 bpmeta 27.4 bpwast 21.5 bpwast 24.1 bpwast 24.4 bpwast 26.9 bpoil 18.2 bpoil 17.1 bpoil 17.2 bpoil 18 Naturally, the above is only my opinions and the data which I have reviewed from the Dorsey Wright site. Readers are reminded the old saving, "caveat emptor (buyer/reader beware)." Paul