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Strategies & Market Trends : The Millennium Crash -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Claude Cormier who wrote (3884)	1/17/1999 8:53:00 AM
From: Arik T.G.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5676

Claude and all, I have reviewed the LT EW count again and have some notes: 1. There is a good support offered by the economic cycles to the count I submitted. I have incorporated those in the body of the count. 2. The typical characteristics of waves 4: Waves 1 usually have a hasitant nature (the market is not yet sure that the correction is over). They can sometimes be mistaken for a consolidation, and not the mark of a new trend. Waves 3 usually make the body of the trend and have strong steady advances. Waves 4 are usually sharp and brief. I have noted that most if not all stock market crashes and mini crashes were waves 4: The '29-'32 crash is presumably Supercycle 4 The '69 and '73-'74 severe declines make a and c of Cycle 4. '87 and '98 mini crashes are both Intermediate 4. October '87 is Minor 4. 3. The A/D line usualy bottoms at market bottoms but does not peak at market peaks. I found it tends to peak at the heart of the up trend, namely the 3 of 3 wave. Here are some examples: decisionpoint.com The A/D line peaked in 4/98 which I named Minute 3 of Minor 3 of Intermediate 3 of Primary 5. decisionpoint.com The A/D line confirmed the 8/82 and 10/90 lows, but peaked 4/86, in the heart of Minor 3 of Intermediate 3 of Primary 3. In 1956 the A/D line topped to a Never-to-be-reached-again level. The fascinating thing is that it topped during the market's Intermediate 3 of Prinary 3 of Cycle 3. I bet that the A/D's all time high was achieved around 1910-1915 while the market was building Primary 3 of Cycle 3 of Supercycle 3. 4. On the S&P 500 real return chart cpcug.org you can see the Cycle and Primary waves very clearly. On this chart Cycle 3 wave tops in 1968 higher then the '65 and '72 tops, and the Cycle 4 wave bottom in 1974 is lower then '82. This gives support to my LT count that puts Cycle 4 from 11/68 to 9/74. Here's the The Great Depression of the ‘30s and the lows that equities reached by 1932 clearly mark the bottom from which we can start counting the stock market and economic cycles. The S&P 500 charts at Ed Yardeni's site can help you follow my count: webcom.com Cycle 1 is a clear impulse from 7/32 to 5/37. Equity prices quadrupled from the bottom on a short cycle that took 5 years. The 1932 bottom and 1937 top correspond with the industrial production low and high of the time webcom.com Cycle 2 is a clear ABC correction, from 5/37 to 5/42. t= 5 years Primary a is an impulse wave that ended in 4/38, Primary b is a rising wedge to 10/39. Primary c Begins with WWII and bottoms in 5/42, 6 months after Pearl Harbor. Cycle 3 From 5/42 to 11/68 inscribed the great post WW II economic expansion t= 26 1/2 years Primary 1- 5/42 to 5/46 t= 4 years Primary 2- 5/46 to 6/49 t = 3 years Primary 3- 6/49 to 7/59 t=10 years .... Intermediate 1- 6/49 to 9/51 .... Intermediate 2- 9/51 to 9/53 .... Intermediate 3- 9/53 to 8/56 .... Intermediate 4- 8/56 to 12/57 .... Intermediate 5- 12/57 to 7/59 Primary 4- 8/59 to 9/60 t= 1 year Primary 5- 9/60 to 11/68 t= 8 years .... Intermediate 1- 9/60 to 12/61 .... Intermediate 2- 12/61 to 6/62 .... Intermediate 3- 6/62 to 2/66 .... Intermediate 4- 2/66 to 10/66 .... Intermediate 5- 10/66 to 11/68 Cycle 4 t= 6 years There were two downturns in the economy that may be considered Primary a - 11/68 to 6/70 Primary b- 6/70 to 12/72 Primary c- 12/72 to 9/74 Cycle 5 t= 24 years, so far. Primary 1 - 9/74 to 11/80. t= 6 years Primary 2 - 11/80 to 7/82 t= 2 years Primary 3 - 8/82 to 10/89 t= 7 years .....Intermediate 1 - 8/82 to 6/83 .... Intermediate 2- 6/83 to 6/84 .... Intermediate 3- 6/84 to 8/87 ........... Minor 1- 6/84 to 7/85 t=13 months ........... Minor 2- 7/85 to 9/85 t= 3 months ........... Minor 3- 9/85 to 7/86 t=12 months ........... Minor 4- 7/86 to 9/86 t= 3 months ........... Minor 5- 9/86 to 8/87 t= 11 months .... Intermediate 4- 8/87 to 12/87 .... Intermediate 5- 12/87 to 10/89 Primary 4 - 10/89 to 10/90 t= 1 year The 1990-1991 recession was the last occurance of negative real GDP growth. webcom.com The prior contractions were in 1980-82 (primary 2 wave) and 1974-5 (cycle 4) Primary 5 - 10/90 to present. t= 8 years and counting. .... Intermediate 1- 10/90 to 1/94 t= 3 years .... Intermediate 2- 1/94 to 12/94 t= 11 months .... Intermediate 3- 12/94 to 7/98 t= 3 1/2 years ........... Minor 1- 12/94 to 2/96 t=14 months ........... Minor 2- 2/96 to 7/96 t= 5 months ........... Minor 3- 7/96 to 10/97 t=15 months .................Minute 1 - 7/24/96 to 2/18/97 (a clear and pretty EW count inside this one) .................Minute 2 - 2/19/97 to 4/11/97 .................Minute 3 - 4/14/97 to 8/6/97 .................Minute 4 - 8/7/97 to 8/29/98 .................Minute 5 - 8/29/97 to 7/10/97 ........... Minor 4- 10/7/97 to 10/27/97 t= 1 months ........... Minor 5- 10/28/97 to 7/17/98 t= 9 months .................Minute 1 - 10/28/97 to 12/5/97 .................Minute 2 - 12/5/97 to 1/12/98 .................Minute 3 - 1/12/98 to 4/6/98 .................Minute 4 - 4/7/98 to 6/15/98 .................Minute 5 - 6/16/98 to 7/17/98 .... Intermediate 4- 7/20/98 to 10/8/98 .... Intermediate 5- 10/9/98 to present. I have also made some conclusions from this count about the nature of the next bear market, but this post is already too long and I'll save it to some other time. ATG