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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jim shiau who wrote (13910)	1/6/1999 10:01:00 PM
From: t2	Respond to of 74651

I noticed that the judge was referring to a Washington Post article interviewing AOL chief. I was expecting something like this from AOL as they are in a bind. They want IE but own Netscape -- what a dilema?? So what is there to do? Easy--start saying that they don't intent to compete with MSFT. That is, provide more ammunition to the DOJ (and judge) because it appeared that MSFT's case was gaining momentum. If I am AOL - I would have to make sure that i do what i can to stop this from happening. Do an interview with a paper. We know AOL wants MSFT to lose because they also have MSN and MSN Internet Access services which compete against AOL. NO SURPRISE! ANOTHER CASE OF A COMPETITOR USING THE DOJ AS LONG AS POSSIBLE!!! AOL is run by smart management (i would do the same). Unfortunately DOJ is run is run by a bunch dummies who don't know what is happening. If the DOJ wins trial -- stock will go up anyways because uncertainty is out of the way. Include the netscape browser with Windows --Big Deal? I say stock goes up even if this happens.

To: jim shiau who wrote (13910)	1/6/1999 10:03:00 PM
From: Jake0302	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74651

How about the DOJ wins the trial? I just happen to be taking an antitrust course in law school right now. Here is my quick take on what will happen: 1. MSFT gets tagged as a monopoly... in operating systems... but so what? Well, it means they are more susceptible to complaints about anticompetitive behavior. MSFT execs go to charm school. 2. The worst remedy - divestiture (which, by the way, would increase the value of the company for shareholders) - won't happen now. The key is how you define the market. The trial is about anticompetitive behavior in the 1995-96 timeframe... the market was OS and browsers... but, alas, the market really is Internet based business. MSFT has put away 17 billion and growing since then, and is buying webtv, hotmail, you name it... I asked my professor the other day, "Does antitrust doctrine have a way to account for a change in the market in the course of the trial." Simple answer: "No." But you can't belp but notice that AOL/NSCP happened midway through the government's case in chief... and it will affect the remedy, which is the only really important issue inthe case... coincidence? Nah: Sun Tzu - attack your enemy when he is halfway across the bridge.. you only have to fight half his force that way. Jim Barksdale just used Gary Reback and the US Government to suppress his opponent and triple his stock price. In response to another poster who predicted we ramp up to earnings, then crater: We are actually going to ramp up to earnings... then accelerate upward on stock split news... due to: - MSFTs case looking stronger and stronger - MSFT focus on Internet advertising (msn, sidewalk, expedia, hotmail). (The Net stocks, by the way, while grossly overvalued will NOT crater. Some will go down... maybe even 100 points, but so what? The net is for real. Ebay is the tip of the iceberg. I go to school and work in Silicon Valley, and I know of a ton of cool businesses that are headed towards the market.) MSFT, like CSCO, WCOM, and a few others will begin to look undervalued at a PE below 100. So what if there is no historical precedent for that? These companies have a higher potential for synergism and dynamic relationships than almost any of their peers... and in the case of MSFT they have 17+ billion in the bank... that buys A LOT of innovation. - New product cycles begin to look not just good, but great. Windows2K begins to gather steam. I am calling it here: 92, split adjusted by April Options Expiration.