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To: Larry S. who wrote (18292)	1/7/1999 1:15:00 AM
From: DanZ	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 53068

Market. Larry, I have to take exception to your statement... <I listen to the chatter on Mirc about the crazies, and the wanting to short and sometimes i shake my head in amazement.> I guess I'm one of those "crazies" because I shorted ATML and VLSI today. I covered VLSI near the close for a 7/16 gain...I was short at 12 and covered at 11 9/16. I tried to cover half of my ATML short at 16 5/16 but my buy order was too late and the stock moved up a little into the close. I'm short ATML at 17 and 16 and feel very confident that I will make money on it over the next day or two. There's a difference in our time perspectives. Over a long period of time, the stock market will go higher. It has done that since the market first opened for business circa 1880 (or whatever) and it will go higher over the lonnnnngggg time. However, it won't go straight up and just because the DJIA was up 233 points today doesn't mean it will continue to go up in the short term. Yes, we have low interest rates and a great economy and a lot of liquidity. But those same forces were in effect back in October when the market was tanking day after day on fears of Asia (so the analysts claimed). Remember Asia?? Wow, look how fast everyone forgot. Has anything really changed over there in the past few months? When the Federal Reserve first cut interest rates, I said don't fight fed easing; the market is likely to start rallying. I said it again on the second easing. However, we have already rallied and now I think the market is ahead of itself. The reason I picked semiconductor stocks to short is because the SOX is into a major resistance area on the monthly chart near its all time high. It has rallied from the low 180 area to near 400 since just October! That's a huge move in a short period of time and I think the index will pull back some. As you and other readers of this thread know, I have been a big semiconductor bull for a while. I even suggested that it might be a good idea to buy call options on the SOX back in July or August..can't remember the exact time, but suffice to say, that would have been a great trade. Even though I'm bullish over the intermediate term for semiconductor stocks, the SOX is into a resistance area and I think it will pull back. At a minimum, I would sell long positions in semiconductor stocks and look for lower entries. This is all IMO, and I'm not a "crazy" lol. And if I am, so what...I made money on my VLSI short, I'm up on half my ATML short, and I think I'll be up on the other half real soon. I'll be out of town on a business trip tomorrow and won't be around during the day. Y'all have a great day--and be careful with the market. Dan