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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (5653)	1/6/1999 10:41:00 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78702

In a day like today, when I'd guess value investors are selling or standing by, I am still finding things I like. Added today to NOC (Northrup). Co. announced lower than analysts-expected earnings. The company says they will earn closer to $6 per sh in '99. That's a pe of 11 at current price. Too low IMO. (Although this latest announcement from management is the second warning -- how credible might these guys be???). PSR compared to previous years is high, p/bv looks like it's maybe midrange. At least two analyst downgrades. One analyst estimates recently approved $100B dollar bill will go mostly to upgrade current troop equipment/pay. Not that much for high tech (Northrup-like) programs. Wild Card for me: Sabre rattling from N. Korea is intensifying mightily (that's IMO--maybe I'm just becoming more aware). These guys play a serious brinkmanship game. If ever there is "a problem", defense will come back. ps. Doesn't Mr. Buffett have a large in GD? (rhetorical) I'll try more NOC. Added to my small position in United Cos. Financial (UC). A big loser for me. This company may go under. But at current price, it's an attractive bet for me. Of course, I've been wrong many,many times before. Paul Senior

To: Paul Senior who wrote (5653)	1/8/1999 1:13:00 PM
From: Freedom Fighter	Respond to of 78702

Hi Paul, >>Hi Wayne! It's me - one of "those" guys! But since I've been able to see and understand more what you are about, I will go back and read the latest. In the past, it has seemed to me that your macro view for the market is entirely negative, yet you are able to buy, sell and hold stocks. Whereas before I thought that was secretive and misleading, I was wrong: if you are consistent in your method and outlook, and seem to have a method to share, and can identify some likely picks - then my criticism is invalid.<< I'm glad I didn't upset you. As you say I have a very negative overall outlook on the market and even the economy because of the general overvaluation and its potential impact if we get a crash. But within that view I occasionally find something I like. I'm going to try in the future to be a little more specific in my writing. Your criticism opened my eyes a bit. As a example, I think prices for many blue chip technology stocks are completely outrageous even though their prospects may be fine. The same could probably be said for some drug companies. But there are other sectors that aren't all that overpriced and maybe even attractive. In the future I'll try to do a better job of making the distinctions. Wayne