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To: drsvelte who wrote (6401)	1/6/1999 10:50:00 PM
From: Broken_Clock	Respond to of 14427

doc, re the drawdown... Has this guy ever been wrong this past year? No... Subject: EARLYBIRD Report Date: Wed, 06 Jan 1999 09:35:20 -0800 From: George <gclemen@calweb.com> Organization: NOESIS To: UPDATE NOESIS <update@oil-gasoline.com> In the last 2 weeks of the year refiners managed to draw down crude oil inventories by 17.9 million barrels to 321.8 million. They did this by reducing imports by 1.4 million barrels per day and increasing input to 98.2 % of capacity. The cold weather hit at just the right time to allow them to move enough distillate out of inventory to operate at these levels. Because of the higher production rates, distillate inventories are still very high at 75.9 million barrels. Gasoline inventory levels, on the other hand, are 10 million lower than January last year -- but the current level, 210.8 million is a reasonable level for this time of year. Refiners probably purchased crude during the last two weeks of December for delivery in January. Imports are expected to increase until inventories are filled again -- that will take about 2 to 3 weeks. NO CHANGE IN THE NOESIS FORECAST. Demand is still expected to drop by February. Products are plentiful, especially distillate. Over Christmas, retail prices of gasoline and diesel dropped. Product prices should remain low throughout the season. SURVEY RESULTS About 75% of subscribers completed the survey. Of those, 55% did not want to pay anything, 45% were willing to pay. Of those willing to pay, 60% thought the information was worth $30 per quarter, the rest mostly fell in the $10 per quarter group. There was overwhelming interest in forecasts for the European, Caribbean and Mideast markets, the highest being European. Based on the results, we will be working toward a site that offers the current pages free except for the most recent forecast, which will be reserved for subscribers. Older forecast pages will be released to the public after 1 month. This system will allow us to add many new features to the subscription side of the site, including a bulliton board, weekly on-line chats, forecasts for other regions, and a few surprises!!! We are also considering carrying ads on the free pages. We welcome your comments as we develop the site. It will be awhile until all of this comes to fruition. In the meantime, it's business as usual -- weekly reports, free to all. Thank you for the continued support. --George oil-gasoline.com