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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Randy Ellingson who wrote (33115)	1/7/1999 4:59:00 PM
From: llamaphlegm	Respond to of 164684

<<<Is it really possible that the vast majority of people buying AMZN today are doing so simply for a trade, and not for some real present v. future value?>>> Yes. I don't think so. That's not to say that we won't see a sizeable pullback sometime, anytime. But this company is being looked at as more than 90% hot air by the market.>>> Randy: We await your spreadsheet or any other bulls explaining the dcf which justifies this company. Do you think that people were saying the same thing about biotech stocks (all these smart people cannot be wrong) and Iomega etc. etc. Tell you what -- I'll give you a choice. own amzn or borders. borders has free cash flow and when it removes the brain dead dolts running the place, they will simply trot out a lovely borders.com ipo, point out that they sell books, videos, and music just like amzn, the site has won awards for layout, customer service and price (beats amazon almost every time) and i can buy all this for 1/11 -- 9% of what it costs me to buy amazon. Or I can wait for MSN or yahoo or anyone to simply buy borders itself (if this online book business is so damned profitable). Better yet. Go to the sites and explain the difference. Better still. Go to pricescan.com mysimon.com buy.com shopping.com Yahoo.com (ever hear of em?) and try the wallet feature xcit.com -- wallet feature. aol.com msn.com take your choice and then explain to me why you simply don't buy everything you purchase online buy letting 2 or 3 of these sites do the search for you and coming up with the cheapest prices. You may price insensitive, but I can assure that most shoppers, when switching costs and opportunity costs (in terms of time) are near zero, are not. I have no idea when the insanity will end. But I watch and wait for the death spiral will be long and provide as much opportunity for profits as it did on the way up. Software store? OK. A few more associate agreements (you don't think all those expensive deals could be hitting the gross margins, do you?) Otherwise, what else can they do? They've simply proven that they can grow sales of books at a DECELERating rate (even though their only 2 years into this endeavor) -- and that they can decrease their margins. Good luck, but do not let the euphoria of a sea of momo traders (and it still is well over 50% individual investors) validate a business model that is devoid of profits to justify even a 1/20th of the current market cap. LP