A wonderful post from the village:
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By: fibr_follower
Reply To: None
Thursday, 7 Jan 1999 at 12:39 AM EST
Post # of 9268
What happened? Some REAL ANSWERS
Ok, so we took a $2 hit.....and the (mama) Bears of the world are claiming that the sky is falling, along with Auric (I wouldn't know a stock that was) Gold (because I spend all day picking my nose with my) Finger's claims of mythical sources and non-existent filings......what does it really mean???
What it MEANS is a combination of things, many alluded to in other posts, but summarized here for the first time (she said,
patting herself on the back):
1) SHORTS PUSHED IT DOWN, AND PUSHED HARD.
With over 600K short, you knew--you just knew--that there was gonna be one last push at this thing. The timing of that push had to come sooner rather than later after last week's gains. If it did not, then what was a person who was short (and remember, probably short somewhere between 2 and 8) going to do? So the short push came....and it may continue tomorrow.....so what? It simply does not affect the fundamental view of the company in any way.
2) SOME PEOPLE BAILED OUT AND TOOK SOME CASH.
Let's face it, if you bought in around 4 or 6 or even 8 to 10, you are sitting on at least a two bagger, and maybe as much as a four-bagger. So if your four-bagger starts to drift back to a three bagger (or three to a two), you say to your self, "Self, you know what, a three-bagger is a good deal and I think I'm gonna take it. If it keeps going down, I'll just buy back in." Without impuning the other members of the "village" (and note, I am but a periodic interloper, not a resident), I would be willing to bet that some folks here did it. No shame in doing so, but this too, has no effect on the fundament view of the company in any way.
3) CONCERNS ABOUT PAST ISSUES CLOUD THE STOCK AND SHORTS USE THIS
Ok, own up, how many of the villagers felt even a twinge of "what the %^&* is going on" during the mid to late afternoon? A number of the posts even include quotes such as "deja vu" "I've seen this before" "wonder if M1 is not going to happen" and on and on.....The short (another good pun) answer is that we all had these thoughts. We have been down this "stock is falling, there must be something wrong" road before. We've seen the Barron's article and all the other Craig Crawford Crapola, even dealt with Barb Payne in the ____ and her twenty share, piddly little trades to make ten cents and then crow about it to the world....we've been through the dark days and we were all nervous. Guess what folks? People with a short position know this, they count on the Kuz response to drive it down lower, and they hooked a number of you yet again.
Soooooooo......here's the proposal:
1) TAKE A STEP BACK AND THINK
Company fundamentals still fine, potential enormous (even Mama Bearly Know Anything admits that the potential is enormous). Good News re: net Silicon, Gigamux trials, Media One, sale of China plant, and the DWDM market growth generally remain here, just like they did yesterday.
2) EXPECT ANOTHER PUSH
For all of those nervous nellies out there, I got bad news, the push ain't over, not by a long shot. Too many shorts, and too much of a downside for them not to keep pushing. Just keep buying it up....I'll admit that I got greedy when I saw it down a point and did NOT jump in on the buy side, because I knew it would slide more (the push HAD to come). I still haven't climbed back in because the hitting ain't likely to be over. I think someone said that their TA indicated likely support at about 12...which would not surprise me, since 12 is about where I think I'd get some more.
3) THE OOZE AND SLEAZE IS LIKELY TO GET ALL THE MORE SLIMY
Just for one second, put yourself in the position of a short, holding a big short position at 4 or 5 when the stock ran like Sean Penn chasing a cameraman all the way to 18. You are now sweating like Bill Clinton when the Jones lawyers said the words "Monica Lewinsky." So you make a little push, and it drops a little, then you push some more,and you haul Auric (looking for) Gold (but so stupid I can't count to one even if I use my) Finger, and Mama (why is everyone so scared when I run around) Bear out of the shanty and you push a little harder with random musings, unsubstantiated rumors and general piles of excrement....and, lo and behold....it starts to slip more, and it gets down to near 13. What's a girl to do? You would, undoubtedly, go for broke and drag out every last pile of excrement and nasty rumor, innuendo, or completely made up piece of unsubstantiated crud you could find. If you can get people really scared, you might not lose your shirt (or your short, as the case may be). Moral of the Story: EXPECT MORE UNSUBSTANTIATED OOZE.
4) BUY IT ALL UP
The way to kill this, and end all of the fun once and for all, is to buy it all up. I have publicly questioned whether the members of
this "village" could possibly control 1.7 Million shares of FIBR, and I still believe that number is grossly overstated, but even if it is by a factor of 100%, the members of the "village" should continue to stockpile it. Limited available number of shares and all the positive news on the way = loads of money.....all you gotta do is see the forest through the trees. Aren't you glad that I was happy to paint the picture for you?
Please feel free to post this, or a link to it, over on the SI board.....as I'd love to hear what additional gunk Auric (lost all my) Gold (trying to give FIBR the) Finger and Mama (I) Bear(ly know sick-em from suck-em) would provide in response.......
As always, I remain,
the fibr_follower |
