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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: wlheatmoon who wrote (42523)	1/7/1999 12:54:00 PM
From: Ilaine	Respond to of 132070

Mike-and-Will is teasing bulls on the MU thread.<g> I sent him a PM, he'll give you the answer, I am sure.

To: wlheatmoon who wrote (42523)	1/7/1999 1:09:00 PM
From: Mama Bear	Respond to of 132070

" I wonder if Mike (William Magner) has the data about when one be back to where one was if one continually invested a defined amount into the market after 1929" I have seen stats claiming that there has only been one rolling 20 year period since 1926 where stocks underperformed bonds. That 20 year period would have been 1929 to 1949. Of course it's not so much whether you've made money, but have you outperformed other investments with less risk. I can dollar cost average into CD's and 'make' money. I don't see anything wrong with lightening up exposure to equities when prices get out of line. If I were 18 I might do it differently. If I didn't have time to be in the market every day, ditto. But it is silly to say I'll pay 1250 for the SPX today because it will probably be 5000 in 2029. Note to Mike: In a 401k plan many of the alternative investments are not available. So it is true that for many folks, the market, gov't bonds or money markets are the only options. Barb

To: wlheatmoon who wrote (42523)	1/7/1999 1:40:00 PM
From: Mike M2	Respond to of 132070

Mike, I may have something along those lines somewhere but one of my notes addresses this issue somewhat. I will post some links for you in a while. Mike

To: wlheatmoon who wrote (42523)	1/7/1999 1:55:00 PM
From: Michael Bakunin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Hmm.. using similar methodology (using total returns I scanned from an Ibbotson book), I find that from January '26 to April '42, you would have done better in T-Bills than in stocks: your equities would be worth $198k, cash $204k. Over the next sixteen years and four months (5/42-8/58), things change: you'd end with $890k in stocks, $224 in T-Bills. The next 16y4m (9/58 - 12/74) is another winner for cash -- $235k SPX, $304k TB. The last period (1/75-4-91) is a stock win: $796k vs. $402k. It sure is interesting that in two of four of these long periods, cash beats stocks. Over all four, natch, stocks win resoundingly, because when they win, they win big. mb