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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Katherine Derbyshire who wrote (7505)	1/7/1999 4:12:00 PM
From: Math Junkie	Respond to of 10921

I very much doubt that we have seen the last of boom-and-bust cycles in this industry.

To: Katherine Derbyshire who wrote (7505)	1/7/1999 4:14:00 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Katherine, A couple points: 1. 64Mb chip spot prices are climbing. This tends to support the rumour that MU is getting extra orders because the Koreans can't produce any additional 64Mb chips. It further lends some credence to the market's expectation that another round of upgrades and / or new fabs is now underway. 2. Per Bagley's comments on CNBC yesterday<?> morning, technology progresses at such a rate that a DRAM fab can become effectively obsolete within 18-24 months. At the current rate of progress, we'll see the Gb chip next year. To me, that's absolutely amazing. I believe the 4Mb chip was still "king" as recently as 1996. So, "time" alone has been sufficient to wipe out the DRAM oversupply that's been plagueing the industry for the past 3-4 years. RE YOUR POINTS: 1. Money: They'll get it somewhere. To me, "where" is irrelevant. "When" is much more important. But there's no sign that the Government is backing out of the picture according to the WSJ (article re LG & Hyundai). So I doubt that money will slow them down. 2. I'm skeptical of any recovery driven primarily by the chaebols. They've behaved suicidally in the past, and have shown no real signs that they won't do so again. YES!!! That's exactly what I'm counting on. I don't own the DRAM guys. I don't really care if they make the money that their business plans indicate that they should or not. And I would welcome them building at an even more suicidal rate as long as they buy equipment from those companies in which I have a position. JMHO, Ian. P.S. Welcome back and happy new year. I hope you enjoyed the holidays.

To: Katherine Derbyshire who wrote (7505)	1/7/1999 9:22:00 PM
From: Ramsey Su	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 10921

Katherine, I am not sure that 2:1 debt to equity ratio is correct. The Chaebols are supposed to have it down to that level by the end of this year. With all the subsidiaries and fancy accounting, I still don't see how they can go from 600+% to 200%. Sure, they can be selling this and merger that. Who will assume the debt? I think the 2:1 is a target, not reality. Ian, don't take Bagley too seriously. Just like Morgan, these guys are trying their best to get the semi companies to panic and think that their competitors are building. If they have real significant orders, they would have blasted press releases all over by now. Ramsey