To: James Thai who wrote (33290 ) 1/7/1999 11:33:00 PM From: Glenn D. Rudolph Respond to of 164684
Amazon Sales Raise Questions About Expectations, E-commerce The action revolving around Amazon.com yesterday provided a great measure of the manic mass psychology surrounding Internet stocks. The online bookseller announced it had logged $250 million in sales in the fourth quarter, tripling last year's fourth quarter numbers and beating most analysts public forecasts. Or did they? That was the provocative question asked by the Dow Jones' Joelle Tessler. On the Street, there had been quiet expectation that Amazon would do $300 million for the quarter. Jeff Matthews, portfolio manager at RAM Partners, told Tessler he was shocked by the numbers. "This shows that this company is human and the Internet has not taken over the world yet," he said. The stock was trading down at $106.50 at one point (it had a three-for-one split after reaching more than $350 Monday). Then, investors decided $250 million wasn't so bad, and drove Amazon shares up $6.19 on the day to close at $124.50. So what do Amazon's hearty sales figures mean for the future of e-commerce and the Internet business? A couple of skeptics reared their ugly heads to bash Net stocks and e-tailing in general. The Washington Post fronted a story by Steven Mufson, keeping readers apprised of the latest round of head-scratching and tongue-clucking caused by Net stock mania. SkyMall shot through the roof on the announcement that Web sales were up 600 percent, even though e-sales are only 3 percent of its total sales; its CEO cashed in to the tune of $24 million. Active Apparel's stock shot up 820 percent on a Web shop announcement, and a company called Zoom caught an updraft just because investors confused it with Xoom. Mufson not only provided the usual expert warnings ("this may be the wildest bubble of the century" and "it's wild, absolutely wild"), but he also had some interesting numbers. For instance, TheGlobe.com paid more for its IPO underwriter than it made in annual revenues, Mufson reported. And as for Amazon's $20 billion valuation, one money manager said it's trading at 200 times projections for 2001 earnings, and "the chances of them [the analysts] knowing what the earnings will be are about one in 50 billion." Amazon skeptic Jonathan Cohen of Merrill Lynch called the e-tailer's stock "the single most expensive piece of publicly traded equity, not only across the Internet space, but probably in the history of modern equity markets." The company itself tried to downplay results. Amazon CFO Joy Covey told the Wall Street Journal that aggressive pricing on books, video and music drove down gross margins in the fourth quarter. On the subject of holiday shopping online, ABCNews.com's Fred Moody was not in a giving mood. He said the numbers seemed impressive but were puny compared to overall consumer spending, and that many online sales were at traditional retailers-turned-e-tailers like Wal-Mart and Eddie Bauer. Moody said online retailers spent a whopping $26 in advertising and marketing per sale, while brick-and-mortar stores spent about $2.50 per sale. His conclusion? "Twenty years from now, the Web more than likely will be to shoppers what catalogs are now. ... And with any luck, shoppers will still do the vast majority of their purchasing in real stores, in real downtowns and malls, where they can interact with real people and test, fondle or try on real goods."