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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (27623)	1/8/1999 2:39:00 AM
From: Math Junkie	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

If you're saying the DRAM business is going to be capacity-constrained a year from now, then those who can come up with the money are going to need to start building well before then in order to meet demand in 2000. If they don't, their competition will, and they'll be left out in the cold, because any new fabs that get built are going to have lower production costs due to smaller geometries. One thing you need to keep in mind about the semi equip business is that it takes a long time to get a fab up and running. Now I happen to agree with you that some of the semi equips are very expensive right now. As a matter of fact, I don't recall hearing any of the regulars on this thread claiming that AMAT, NVLS, or TER should be purchased at these prices. (There are other members of the sector that are more reasonably priced.) However, if you are expecting them to go back down significantly any time soon, I think you will be disappointed. It could happen, but it would be very dangerous to count on it.