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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Investor2 who wrote (2740)	1/7/1999 8:39:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

I2: I apologize. I do not know what got into me. Dow 20,000 by 2,000 is my motto from this day forward!!! CYMI should have picked up after ASMLF surged yesterday on news that Samsung has money to spend. And how about that old fart ADPT. Pulling a preannounce of greater than expected earnings of .20 plus. Watch that old tech go. Take me to the bank on both. I hope UTEK does a preannounce of greater than expected earnings some day. And NVLS is hereby appointed first seminut stock at $70 per share today. Remember Bob on this one? He saw a double or triple from the bottom through the cycle. Here we are at the beginning of the cycle and we have tripled plus. My missed opportunity <g>.

To: Investor2 who wrote (2740)	1/7/1999 9:16:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

I2: I just can't help it. I can't stop. I am hopeless. Look, Alice doesn't live in this market anymore: Fed's Rivlin Says U.S. Economy Strong, Questions Stock Prices Washington, Jan. 7 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy is stronger than Federal Reserve officials expected and shows no sign of recession, although that might not justify the current level of stock prices, Fed Vice Chairman Alice Rivlin said. ''I don't see signs of recession,'' Rivlin said in an interview on CNBC. ''We all expect that the economy will be slower this year than last year, but we've been expecting a slowdown for some time,'' she said. ''The current statistics have been coming in very strong, except for manufacturing.'' After expanding during the first nine months of 1998 at a 3.7 percent annual rate, Fed policy-makers have said they expect growth in the range of 2 percent to 2.5 percent in 1999. Under those circumstances, Rivlin said, the Fed didn't make a mistake in reducing the overnight bank lending rate by 75 basis points in three moves between September and November. ''We're concerned about the longer run future, as the Fed has to be. There's every reason to think the economy will slow down this year as the impact of the Asian and world crisis hits the U.S. economy,'' she said. Given that, Rivlin said, she has some concerns about the level of stock prices. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has risen more than 5 percent over the past month, and the Nasdaq composite index has risen almost 14 percent. The Dow, Nasdaq and Standard & Poor's 500 indexes all closed at record highs yesterday. ''Surely the stock market is very high by any kind of measure,'' she said. ''You have to be extremely optimistic about earnings to justify these stock values.'' Rivlin also said she's not surprised that neither the markets or the economy have been affected by the impeachment proceedings against President Bill Clinton. ''There's been a lot of surprises in the last year and it's hard to tell what will happen. But I think the markets have been responding to the strong economy. The strength of the economy or the weakness of the economy is what does drive markets,'' she said. International Issues Turning to international issues, Rivlin said Fed officials aren't concerned ''in the immediate short run'' that the euro, Europe's new single currency, will displace the dollar as the world's reserve currency of choice. ''Certainly if the euro becomes a reserve currency, which it certainly will over the next few years, there will be some rebalancing and central banks and others will think about how to hold their reserves,'' she said. ''But a lot depends on how the U.S. economy goes, how the world economy goes.'' At the same time, if the euro does become a reserve currency, Rivlin said, ''I don't think its anything we have to worry about. There's certainly room in the world for two reserve currencies.'' Optimistic on Euro Rivlin was optimistic about the euro's chances for success, even though Europe's political structure is different, with one central bank making monetary policy and 11 different governments controlling fiscal policies. It's ''certainly possible'' that big imbalances will develop and put strains on fiscal policies in Europe, Rivlin said. ''I think time will tell. We've shown in the United States that a big country with a single currency does have strains.'' Although labor mobility is limited by national languages and customs, that might be less of a concern at a time when capital is mobile, Rivlin said. ''Capital flows very freely now, and that may be more important in an era where we don't have high concentrations of factories,'' she said. ''Capital can move to where the labor is. Rivlin offered no prediction for Brazil's chances of successfully reforming its economy. ''I think everybody's concerned about Brazil and the developing situation there. The president has made very strong moves, it remains to be seen whether he can pull it off. But the whole international community is pulling for them,'' she said.