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Biotech / Medical : XOMA. Bull or Bear? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robert K. who wrote (8238)	1/7/1999 11:07:00 PM
From: aknahow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 17367

Bob, here are my scientific estimates of trauma accruals for the next 3 months. Feb. 1 650 Mar. 1 725 Apr. 1 800 What is the purpose of posting this? About the same as my other post. <g>

To: Robert K. who wrote (8238)	1/8/1999 7:47:00 AM
From: Robert S.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 17367

The model presented was intended to be a starting point (i.e., foundation) for determining, quantitatively, possible share valuations based upon market size and aside from my edit, was copied as is from post 1310. If you believe $5000 is a fair value for BPI treatment then use that figure for the model; but, as you and others have pointed out, HMOs are unlikely to cover such costs for all indications. Be that as it may, if earnings occur Wall Street will look at the very small market size for meningococcemia and, IMHO, value it accordingly. If FDA approval is granted, share prices would, I believe, rise for a short while thereafter before retracing some of it's gains. Thus, Roger M., myself, and other investors feel it is wiser to take a position after FDA approval, rather than before, as one can participate in the majority of the potential upside while reducing downside risk. After reading posts here and elsewhere that xoma shares would be at $20+ in 1997, a time when clinical trials were far from reaching conclusion, I feel it is prudent to associate numbers with these projections so as to reveal the improbability of these share price prognostications.

To: Robert K. who wrote (8238)	1/11/1999 5:42:00 PM
From: schadenfreude	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 17367

RobertK, I believe you misinterpreted the model. The model discounts unapproved drugs in clinical trials to account for the fact that some will never make it to market. For phase III, the discount is 0.5. For example, the calculation for hem trauma is 250,000 patients x 30% penetration x 0.5 = $37.5M. If Neuprex is approved for this indication, you would remove the 0.5 factor and it would be worth $75M. So the model is saying the stock is worth $7 now but more if phase III is completed successfully. While the model is far from perfect it's least a start. If anything, it's overly conservative. The model assigns a value of 1x peak sales for an approved drug. 3-4x sales seems more reasonable. Otaku