To: gmccon who wrote (25631 ) 1/7/1999 9:57:00 PM From: goldsnow Respond to of 117274
Record total profits forecast for gold mines Analysts grow more and more confident of the profitability of SA producers - helped by a relatively weak currency David McKay SA's gold industry is forecast to record total profits of between R2,5bn to R3bn in 1999 despite mining at least five tons less gold than in 1997, the last time total profits hit the R3bn mark, say analysts. The upbeat forecast hints at the growing levels of confidence analysts have in the profitability of SA gold producers which, unlike their North American counterparts, have a relatively weak currency to thank for ameliorating the effects of the poor dollar gold price. Notwithstanding the rand's depreciation, analysts said SA mines had become more efficient since 1996 - the year notable for the number of doomsayers who said the SA gold industry was on its knees. Analysts believe that SA gold producers are well positioned to act on their improved international exposure. Anglogold, which reinvented itself and burst on to the international gold market last year; the promising Gold Fields; and most recently Durban Roodepoort Deep, have been linked with offshore transactions. Although SA gold producers have still to report their production statistics and financial results for the three months to December, one analyst was confident that profits for the 1998 calendar year would come in at about R2bn - a figure considered conservative by others. This is R1bn lower than profits recorded in 1997 when about 495 tons of gold were produced from SA mines. Between 485 tons to 490 tons is expected to be produced from SA mines this year. Merrill Lynch's gold analyst David Hall said this year could be the year in which benefits were derived from the previous three years' painful rebirth. "Nineteen ninety nine may well be a year of growth as long as one is not too optimistic about the gold price," Hall said. Several brokers, including Merrill Lynch and SG Frankel Pollak, believed the gold price would test $300/oz by midyear. Another brokerage said an annual average of $310/oz was possible. In addition, the rand was expected to weaken in the long term. If, as expected, it touched R6,50 to the dollar after the general election, total profits of R4bn for the SA gold industry would not be out of the question. Angus Auchterlonie of SG Frankel Pollak said that in addition to total profits of R2,3bn-R2,5bn in total earnings, there were still further benefits to come out of last year's rationalisations. For example, the purchase of the Evander gold mines by Harmony from Gold Fields was expected to give Harmony another good year. Canadian gold producer Placer Dome was expected to breathe new life into Western Areas by introducing a North American mindset which so many SA gold companies have sought to emulate. Placer Dome bought half of Western Areas last year for R1,34bn in cash which many commentators hope deputy chairman Brett Kebble will spend on high-returning international gold mines. Kebble said his company would be "scouring the earth" for good bargains, but attention is being drawn also to Gold Fields which is rumoured to be in a large corporate deal with a North American company. Anglogold, fresh from its $500m purchase of Minorco's gold mines, has been linked to an investment in the Australasian gold industry. Durban Roodepoort Deep's plans to buy into a Fiji gold mine owned by Sydney-listed Emperor Mines are believed to be afloat despite criticism it drew from some Emperor Mines' shareholders. bday.co.za