To: Bill Lotozo who wrote (936 ) 1/10/1999 5:06:00 PM From: Bill Lotozo Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 1461
I pulled this off yahoo - interesting reading one reason PCMS is going higher is that it is obvious from this board that the shorts are still very active. I feel sorry for them. This is the way I see it.. CIBC Oppenheimer - Stong buy Paine Webber - Buy Dain - Buy just upgraded 1/7/99 after close Smith Barney - Buy Wheat First - Buy Prudential - Hold Needham & Co - Hold Volpe Brown - Hold UBS - Hold First Analysis - Hold I would bet that an upgrade or two and some buy reiterations occur this week when it becomes even more obvious that the Wireless industry has turned. PCMS is selling at 1X 1998 sales and under 1X 1999 sales. PCMS is selling at 1.67X 1998 CURRENT assets as well. Thats peanuts! Float is 31.8 million. Shares out are 43.4 million. Institutions own 41%. They have 39 Mill+ (includes 15 mill just received) in cash. They're were 2.6 million shares short 12/8/98 which probably 1/2 have covered. There will be no more restructuring charges this quarter (they did the prudent thing by getting it all done at once). The salaries have been cut 10% and their R&D charges of 33 million charges are already paying off in orders for the 4th quarter. Several assets and employee expenses extinguished. Announced orders in the 4th qtr.... 1.3+ Mill for Brazil 1.0+ Mill for Austrailia will go much higher if tests succeed 2.0+ Mill for Taiwan will go higher on rollout 6.5+ Mill for the UK continues to be a great contract 1.4+ Mill for Africa 2.3+ Mill for China expect this to become HUGE in 1999 6.0+ Mill for the UK just announced 12/30 confirms the great contract 2.9+ Mill for Germany Thats 23.4 mill in new business for 4th quarter not including the higher margin network servicing recurring revenue. I expect the new Canadian office to be reporting major new deals along with Mexico. The activity in this industry is now flaring up. PCMS has obviously has an extreme volume breakout. Just how extreme... The week of 12/28/98 PCMS did 11,387,000 in a range from 2.688 to 4.313. Then last week did 24,288,200 in a range from 3.313 to 7.375 with 20 mill of that the last 2 days. on a float of 31.8 mil I'd say that is some serious re-distribution and accumulation. Last time PCMS was at 7.375 was the week of 8/10/98. The total # of shares traded from 8/10/98 - 12/24/98 has been 66,144,700 shares. Get this... 35,675,200 (the last 2 weeks) is over 1/2 of what PCMS did in volume the last 5 months. That is what I call a major Volume/Price Breakout that is hitting radar screens as we speak. Remember... The company still has serious top line growth. 1994 9.2 mill in sales 1995 42.8 mill in sales 1996 97.5 mill in sales 1997 220.7 mill in sales 3 qtrs of 1998 233.8 mill in sales in a horrible wireless market. PCMS will be in double digits very soon. If you're short, cover and short again at the year highs. If you long, enjoy the ride and take cost basis profits along the way. PCMS has turned the corner. Good luck to all.