Lets talk about Big times.....
Copy of the post by heels on RB:
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By: heels
Reply To #9424 by Man_and_Nature
Thursday, 7 Jan 1999 at 11:22 PM EST
Post # of 9435
Maybe they know what we know....
Are we under attack? Yes, I think we are. And the attack is casting doubt despite the evidence right before our very eyes. And if this
doubt causes a SINGLE one of our Villagers to lose sight of the prize, I find that very sad indeed.
I'll share a story, without mentioning any names. I got an e-mail from one of our Villagers. He was seriously thinking of dumping his shares, and he asked me for my advice. I felt awkward, for I didn't know whether the price would fall from that level, right around 15 1/2. Indeed, I had just bought at 15 11/16. I knew that if I advised him to hold on and it fell further I'd lay a big guilt trip on my own head. But then I decided to share with him the truth as I saw it. I'll share that truth here, and everyone, of course, can put it in the FWIW department.
Look at where we are. We are up to 11 1/2, where we used to dream about. Our beloved FIBR then shot itself all the way to a NINE
BAGGER from September, from the TWO in September. We could do no wrong. We owned the universe. We were all getting wealthy.
Some of us bought, rather heavily, on margin.
Imagine what the shorts felt like. They were, and still are, desperate. They launched desperate measures. Maybe some of them are
MM's and they swapped big blocks of shares between MM's, which, as I understand it, is quite illegal. They created the appearance
that something is wrong with the company.
BUT THERE IS NOTHING WRONG WITH THE COMPANY! In fact, within the next six weeks, we are likely to see our dreams come
true. We will probably see some major announcements, announcements with NUMBERS attached to them. How do I know? I don't know. This is in the rumor department. But I can tell you that it is not the same rumor department that talks about Par and drug trafficking. That's in the I-am-going-to-try-to-steal-your-money-away-from-you department.
I'm afraid that some of our own, some of our own Villagers are about to suffer or already have suffered by making one of the biggest
investments mistakes of their lives: selling Osicom.
Folks, why do you think Osicom opened four European offices? Remember several conference calls ago when Par talked about the "rescue business." At the time I had no idea what that meant. Now I know. It's business like the TU business, a situation where a fiber network is so bloody clogged up that it can tolerate no additionial traffic.
Well, guess what?
That describes EUROPE! Europe is in need of rescue. Its networks are bursting at the seams. Guess who will come to the rescue?
The Gigamux and DWD-N will come to the rescue.
Can you imagine the SIZE of business this will entail?
This is just Europe, folks.
Par was being very conservative in his estimate of 10% of the 1.2 billion market for 1999. Suppose we don't get 120 million. Suppose we get 200 million?
What is going to happen to the stock of a company whose revenue is about to be increased 200% by a line of products that has barely added any dollars to the top line, much less to the bottom line?
What do you think the analysts (that's PLURAL) are going to do with growth curves that look like that?
I think there is a huge amount of activity about to take place. I think analysts are on their way. I think other deals are in the works. I think John Mason's laugh the other day was right on the money: MediaOne is only a SMALL part of the story. Other developments could
make MediaOne pale in comparison.
Is this speculation on my part? Well, it's a heckuva lot LESS speculation than some no-load short talking about Par and drugs or some
former poster talking about pump-and-dump schemes. These thoughts are based on my own due diligence, on my own digging, on my
own putting pieces of the puzzle together.
We did NOT jump from that 4 1/2 breakaway to 18 because of some sinister scheme. Heavy institutional buying took us at least through the 9 barrier. I think a lot of retail exuberance (mine included) took us up from there, along with continued institutional buying. I think a lot of very large shareholders took us up to 18. And I KNOW FOR A FACT that those same very large shareholders are STILL BUYING.
Kuz, I hope you're still with us. I hope other Villagers are holding tight. I think the shorts are very, very desperate. So far they are succeeding. But they are still very far behind.
If other large and methodical buyers should enter the picture, and I think they are out there waiting to make their moves, then the shorts will fail. When analyst coverage comes (and it will) the demand for this stock is going to start chasing the real float, not some
manufactured float by desperate, shorting MM's. When this sea change comes, when the a very violent, and beautiful-to-behold, short squeeze.
So I will not shy away from giving advice to anyone who wants to listen. This is still our chance to shine, folks. I just hate to see
someone fall prey to these predators. Anyone who sells here, I believe, in my most humble opinion, will regret it in the not-too-distant
future.
I'm not going to say "45 by summer" or "25 by the San Francisco dinner." I don't know that. You don't know that. Only Mr. Market knows that. I will say, however, that the next few weeks might very well fill in the picture of what Osicom can become.
I urge anyone thinking of leaving the Village simply to think twice. Anyone who has left the Village, well, it might be time to come back.
I wish everyone well. I'm traveling again tomorrow, to Atlanta to visit me old southern Uncle, 95 and not doing too well at all.
Maybe I can take the devilanthedpbluc to lunch!
Any Atlantans out there? My treat!
Heels67
P.S. Please post these views on SI. Again, in the FWIW department. |
