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To: Fredman who wrote (430)1/9/1999 10:26:00 AM
From: james flannigan  Respond to of 1652
 
Fred in 10 monts you will look like a prophet,holding oil.I belive in the last month that a oportunity that only happens once in a life time has been laid at our feet. at a time when the Arabs should have turned off the tap last year they turned it on adding 2million bls a day to the world mkt.at the same time Asia slowed consumption . In this same time the warm weather we had in North america further slowed consumption. THese 3 factors have come togeather at the same time, thus creating $10 oil.We can assume that these conditions will not last forever, and due to the fact that the US has closed production of 1.2 million blspsd and that opec is expected to close another 2 million blspd soon.Given the fact that Asia is expected to recover this year, iwould not be suprized to see a major shortage of oil 9 months out.As we know in the past looking at the history of oil, the supply demand balance has never been achived,thereby creating wild swings in the price of oil.