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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (7518)	1/8/1999 2:55:00 AM
From: Math Junkie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Incidentally, if you sell SVGI at $17, you will be selling at $1 below book value. Sure you want to do this? <g>

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (7518)	1/8/1999 11:10:00 AM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Cary, Welcome back. I'm interested in your rationale for lightening up at this time. Valuation? Concerns about forward looking statements with earnings reports? Non-belief in the DRAM capacity story? Something else? or All the above? ;-) What would cause you to top up your positions? or sell more? In advance, thanks for anything that you care to share. Ian. ++++++++++++++ excerpt from a DJN clipping.. Analysts and investors have become more optimistic about semiconductor equipment companies in the last few months, too, after the sector took a severe beating for most of 1998. Gus Richard, an analyst at Hambrecht & Quist, said he is optimistic that chip equipment makers will begin to show slow, steady improvement this year. He said he expects Novellus to report earnings of 22 cents a share on sales of $107 million, compared with 64 cents a share a year ago. Richard said he thinks Novellus could beat his estimate, based on increased orders for equipment that can make chips using copper to link transistors together. While Richard is cautious that chip equipment stocks could face some hurdles in the next few months, he said he's optimistic about the long run. "The multi-year trend is very positive," Richard said. "There's a lot of wonderful (demand) drivers coming up in the next few years."

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (7518)	1/8/1999 10:15:00 PM
From: Investor2	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

Hi Cary, it's good to hear from you again. I'm curious, why didn't you use stop losses, instead of selling the first 1/3 of you holdings outright? Also, why did you sell the entire batch, instead of holding on to those stocks that you believe have a better chance at outperforming? Best wishes, I2

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (7518)	1/8/1999 11:57:00 PM
From: EACarl	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Good to see you post Cary. I would like to ask some similar questions to what Ian asked. Do you think they are just too far ahead of fundamentals, and expect a significant pullback? If so, how much pullback do you expect to see before buying back the sold shares? Do you expect to see these companies share prices higher 1 year from now? I noticed you are selling more of the "big guys" (AMAT, NVLS, KLAC), and I agree they are way overvalued relative to the smaller companies. In fact I too have sold some of those same stocks, but moved the cash into different companies in the sector which I think have potential to outperform on a percentage basis. Thanks, Eric.