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To: Sir Auric Goldfinger who wrote (6554)	1/8/1999 9:57:00 AM
From: The Street	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12810

Great post. This Market is completely INSANE. I am looking for the CRASH then GOLD rally. <6555>

To: Sir Auric Goldfinger who wrote (6554)	1/8/1999 9:42:00 PM
From: X Y Zebra	Respond to of 12810

An historical retrospective on the countervailing forces of Dark Suckers: Surge of Interest in Electricity Mirrors Today's Internet Hype. By DAVID WESSEL Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL Quick: Think of a new end-of-the-century technology that captivates entrepreneurs and investors and sends stock prices of pioneering companies to unimaginable heights. Without doubt a great post Auric. A reminder that indeed the Dark Forces of financial doom always lurk the waters of the stock market oceans, much like hungry sharks seeking the tasty flesh of foolish "investor wanna be's". No doubt in my mind we are now threading in heights that given the many variables that affect the market any slip from said variables, we will be looking at the great abyss of undetermined depth. Take for example the recent news about Brazil, one of its states has decided to default in its financial obligation. From Yahoo/Reuters: biz.yahoo.com An excerpt: The market's blue-chip Bovespa index was down 6.06 percent to 6,887 points, with bellwether issue Telebras preferred receipt losing 7 percent to 91.7 reais. Minas Gerais governor Itamar Franco said late on Wednesday his state had an ''absolute lack of money'' to make payments on some 18 billion reais ($15 billion) on debt. ''What we're seeing is the Itamar effect,'' a trader at Banco Credibanco in Sao Paulo said. ''This complicates the fiscal situation because of less revenue (for the central government) from states.'' Then again... If you look a little deeper, maybe there are other motives. dailynews.yahoo.com Minas Gerais owes the federal government $12.5 billion. The debt was renegotiated last year, when Franco's predecessor agreed to pay $67 million a month over 30 years. Few analysts think Franco will really suspend payments. His state could lose federal funds and be forced to pay quadruple the 7.5 percent interest rate it now pays. ''It's obvious he won't go through with it,'' said Carlos Ari Sundfeld, professor of constitutional law at Sao Paulo's Catholic University. ''The government has a fantastic arsenal to wage this kind of war and has made it clear it won't hesitate to use it.'' Some feel the threat is part of a long-range political plan by Franco, who was president from 1992 to 1994 and has made no secret he wants the post again. The fear that other governors would follow Franco's example hasn't materialized.. If you look at old news... 1992, you will see that Mr.Itamar Franco used to have "certain standards" that could be changed to accommodate his particular pursuits..... it is political ethics. (like the ones from a closer 'hood') psg.com (go down to the English part, unless you understand Portuguese). Minas Gerais is a STATE of Brazil.... so the debt outlined above is not the total debt that Brazil has... So, is it really that bad ? May be it is, but may be it is not. The point here is that everything is relative to what valuations are we talking about, and relative to what standards..... It is important to point out a few distinctions between then and now. 1. Populations are substantially different. (size) 2. Communications today are much faster and reach places that in comparison, back then had not even been explored. 3. Far more people are now being targeted as customers that before did not even exists. Yes that arguments sound quite similar, but the possibilities to realize today's goals, (a complete integration of the world's markets), seem more reachable than back then. 4. There is a larger general acceptance of free markets today in more places than ever. Individuals all over the world are being empowered and capable to become productive, in turn they become customers. 6. Governments are becoming less influential, allowing both corporations and individuals to reach each other without the obstacles of the past. 7. The Internet is here and now, and it is reducing costs for many participants. 8. Commodities.... particularly oil, (a real spark for inflation), continue its slide, this helps contain costs in most industries. 9. There is a mountain of money being allocated to the Stock Market, and for the foreseeable future this will continue. Is this time really different ?... No I do not think so, except many "standards" by which assets will be valued are changing considerably. I believe that we are, as we speak, learning this new standards. So long we continue to have misleading politicians combined with an increased capacity for the general public to find out the real story, old tactics and standards may not work, and I believe this is part of what the markets are experiencing at this time. Are we nearing a point in which it warrants to short the big ones ? I will let the market show me first, might not be as profitable, but it is safer.... we shall see. As for the bb's.... well, most of the time is always a good time, particularly the non reporting ones...