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Technology Stocks : Concurrent Computer (CCUR) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Goodboy who wrote (6384)	1/8/1999 11:38:00 AM
From: Nimbus	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 21143

Now that was a more reasonable post It is true that early on the MediaHawk was advertised as a mid-range stream offering, not over 375 streams if I remember right. That is why they could not compete on residential with it, but it fit well for Hotel work. Since then they have come up with a clustering scheme to get 1000+. The 1000 number is always what they state, rather than the 5000+ that they likely need for a decent suburb system. Diva advertises over 5000 and ncube upwards to 20,000 .... but neither SEAC or CCUR advertise these levels that I have seen. They both have schemes to get there through group clustering but these schemes are not without introducing significant complexity and cost. Diva and Ncube can get 5000+ without going outside of their base box, so they don't suffer the scaling cost hit or complexity hit as badly. I do think that of all the players, CCUR is having to become proficient overnight in many areas simultaneously that the bigger mainstream names like SGI/ORACLE are highly skilled at; mainly clustering, storage systems, video encoding, networking, and fault tolerance. I do keep my eyes on these players as they have the deep pockets and people to sustain technology insertion and they have existing factories to crank out servers similar to their strongly backed Enterprise servers, giving them immense leverage for the long haul. Of key interest is how Information Management will play into this. Today, with a properly constructed Oracle database, a computer can "compose on the fly" a "movie" that is streamed to you that shows for instance all the touchdown passes by a selected quarterback over the course of a game, month, season, career, ect ..... along with audio, statistics, angles, ect .... (I am working in this area) This level of Information Management will add a level of interactivity that only the bigger players can provide, and I suspect that this is the card they will play to justify their late arrival on scene once all the headend bugs are worked out and the Digital and STB infrastructure is established to enable volume server sales. CCUR and SEAC are able to play now as to them this market is big, but to SGI, it is tiny now and they likely wont barge in until it is worth their time. SGI is in an active trial TODAY so they are not waiting till the last second to "catch up." It's too early to tell who will be left standing 3 years from now, but I will be watching intensely and will sell my shares of CCUR when and if the tide turns. Who knows, Dell, Compaq, and Microsoft might be names we will be hearing within a year too. It's a fun industry. CCUR is still is a good investment and I am up handsomely with it too, but my target is still higher. I still am concerned that VOD in 99 will yield only a $3-5M revenue impact at CCUR (at $300K/server = 10-17 "big" servers), and that is not very much considering the declining revenue trend line. Also, expenses might be higher to support the trials ... hopefully they are getting paid partially for that effort. What are your thoughts on 99 from an overall business performance prospective, and the resultant share price ? The PE is already way out of bounds for most analysts and retail eyes.