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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (88191)	1/8/1999 10:04:00 PM
From: On the QT	Respond to of 176387

Chuzz to QT: " you raise some interesting points, but I have a different perspective than you. I believe that the price of any stock is based on the collective perception of the investing public concerning the earnings outlook for any particular company. This perception is guided in part bay analysts, but it is also guided by rumors and gossip, including what we opine here. Collectively, these sources of intelligence constitute the whisper number. The idea of an "official" whisper number is silly, because it has a life of its own. That would be like trying to certify some rumors as "official". So I think that the idea of manipulating a whisper number is nothing more nor less than trying to manipulate rumors and gossip. " As I said in my post there is no whisper number that I know of that is acceptable to all. I don't think at this time a case for an "official" whisper number could be made, unless somehow those things that, can be measured in a reasonable way and agreed upon in some acceptable fashion, and would then be publicized in some cogent and aggressive way. If that were the case, then perhaps some meaningful remedial adjustment could be made. Rumors and gossip as you put it, could be made to be less of a factor. As it presently exists rumor and gossip is very much in evidence and probably is a result of a lack of belief in the validity of the earnings number. From my point of view, rumor and gossip are encouraged, when people believe that the real number (earnings projection) is suspect. We tend to be skeptical at best and susceptible at worse to that self defeating (rumor and gossip)kind of thinking. What I am suggesting is an attack on that kind of thing. I suggest that if the real earnings number where more believable and acceptable, then the whisper number would have less of an effect. I believe it would exist in some form regardless of how many good and agreed up criteria is used, but the importance of that element of the perceived whisper number would be diminished. Rumor and gossip can not be treated as a cause of the whisper number it is a symptom of a weak and not readily acceptable earnings number! Trying to treat that symptom is like trying to capture a cloud with a soup strainer! What I said and am saying is the method for determining the earnings number should be (but had and still have doubts about whether it could be ) devised with an eye on reducing the influence of that which can not be measured ( your words "rumor and gossip") and thereby minimize the influence of that sort of thing (whisper number). Chuzz to QT: What should be clear to all of us is that "analysts" expectations are manipulated all the time by two forces: first, the companies themselves wish to manage investor's expectations by setting the bar low enough so that they can consistently produce "earnings surprises"; second, by the brokerage houses who are loathe to issue honest analysis for fear of losing a real or potential banking relation." QT to Chuzz: Good observation. Many times that is the case. I know I factor that in, however imperfectly, when I try to determine: How will this affect the price of my stock in my trades. How will the betting money interpret this? I also realize that in addition to the company managing the expectations of the analysts who in turn manage the expectations of most the investors and traders we also should be aware of the increasing influence this so called "whisper number" has on the impact of meeting expectations. It is part of the handicapping process. It exists and I use it as "is" Lets go back to your prior points "So I think that the idea of manipulating a whisper number is more nor less than trying to manipulate rumors and gossip". Your conclusion is one that has merit in my mind. Certainly brokerage houses through their analysts can influence rumor and gossip. Whatever the degree of attempted manipulation and the success of such attempt(s)that sort of manipulation, if accepted, is furthered whether willingly or unwittingly, by the media. In my last post I held up for viewing what we all have contributed (that I was aware of) so as to put it on the table for discussion. I thought that the posts from others were valid posts and qualified for further discussion. Your thoughts certainly furthered the inquiry. In this post your contribution and thoughts allowed me to get a closer at my own issues. The media publishes a whisper number as if it were the one and only valid " Whisper Number". This practice leaves me with a sense of wonderment as to what we as the precipitants of this poor practice will silently accept as valuable information. On the Quiet is howling! When people who have media power, talk in terms of Dell missing the whisper number after having done a wonderful job of delivering a fine performance as the reason why the stock did not do well is to say at minimum,disturbing. While the statement may be accurate it is not correct to assume that therefore the depressed price (due to missed whisper number)is justified. More should be done by the Media and other groups before and after the fact. For the media to accept and present all of the varying opinions as one packaged in a single whisper number ( as if that number had the same mathematical credentials of the earnings number ) is perhaps the most frustrating aspect of this situation. Perhaps the media in reporting in this after the fact can be understood , after all the cat is out of the bag (pun intended), and they are only doing their job. However, I take issue with the minimum way in which this job is viewed. There is little (that I am aware of) being done by the media to educate its audience in this area as too how really inadequate the system is …much less call for reform and unity in minimizing this situation! Like it or not, the ordinary and not so ordinary investor or trader, and the company is indeed affected by the "whisper number packaging" by the media. This perception becomes a reality when it is reflected in the stock price. The big infamous whisper number has singularly taken on greater value than the company earnings . When better measurement (the earnings number) becomes subservient to the lesser measurement (the whisper number) there is an incongruity that needs exposure and remedial action. Sincere Regards, QT PS I don't like to think in terms of others righting the wrongs. Time to call on my Don Q where art thou? Me thinks we see a windmill! Where is my wooden horse? I can't find my Pepe !